I'm pretty sure we saw the top of the alt season rally here. If Bitcoin topped for good or not, ETHBTC likely goes lower next. Everyone and their mother believe in up only and want alt season forever, people quit jobs for crypto, there's a lot of flippening talk, before this drop people were talking about the price levels they want to sell ETHBTC at, higher of course, mining gear is selling at insane prices and people pay them without problems, but they pay with cash, not with crypto cause they are confident in upside still...Doge at SNL was peak altcoin lunacy here, and the performance of ETHBTC during the drop in BTCUSD is reminiscent of January 2018. Upside risk to short it vs Bitcoin is lower than potential downside.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
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Shorts in alts worked well, I covered near the lows today, and sit in cash in crypto. Not 100% sure of direction for now but I expect more bearish action over time. It could take a long time to chop before breaking lower though...I rather not lose money in the chop, so trading other markets for now, or waiting for a VERY low risk signal makes sense.
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Seems like I could have held shorts, but overall fine to be in cash...bear market likely. Seems like Vitalik sold foundation coins when I published this, guess he liked my post.
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Bear market.
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About to start the next leg down.
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Ended up bottoming and reversing the fall, the top call was correct overall, as we had a big drawdown.
Thanks for the reminder to sell some ETH/BTC, I had forgotten this market amidst all the other action! On the subject of whole crypto market, I'm still doubting whether this is the top of this run.. there are many factors for this scenario I think. First is just a gut feeling as I don't feel this was violent and volatile (apart from DOGE and some other memecoins) enough to be a long term top for most cryptos. Second the charts for many alts (especially against BTC) don't seem "finished" in the sense that they haven't gone through full cycle and had a proper bull season yet. It's fair to say many of these altcoins prob never will, but amongst these are many strong cryptos. Also in the FIAT markets LTC/XMR/XLM/XRP and many other top cryptos haven't actually topped the 2017/18 ATHs, which I feel is almost a requirement before we can call the top to have been reached. Last are the trillions of upcoming COVID stimulus money that haven't even been issued yet, especially from the EU.
I agree we are most likely going down short term, but after that I think a slow recovery is more likely than a full on bear market and we could be on track again after half a year or so. I think the fundamentals are simply too strong as during the last year there has been some serious real world adaptation for cryptos across the board, and the interest is huge. I think we might just not go down the way we did in 2018, as the are too many buyers with cheap money.
Could be wrong ofc, which is why I've been selling a lot last month, but I think there's a real chance this is just the beginning. If this is the case we might be looking at just the first leg of a multiyear bull market which could send us to 10+ trillion market cap with 100-150k BTC, 10-15k ETH in 2022-23 or so. This would coincide nicely with the eventual inflation from all the stimulus money too. This is something that would be insane enough I feel :)
BTCINVESTING
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i still more bullish. this my view. i have also my pocket full to buy cheap... what do you think about this...
rajasmasala
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@btcinvests, This is assuming Musk is still going to keep up the Wyckoff manipulation (that is what that pattern describes, essentially max MEV on a chart). I'm sure he's stepped into too many legal issues with his tweet storm by now.
BTCINVESTING
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@rajasmasala, :-) lets see. tesla lost 23% in the last days since his post. ;-)
IvanLabrie
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@btcinvests, shareholders might not approve of the crypto foray, perhaps. But the drops started before all of this, mostly connected to the stock fundamentals, the business itself not the crypto gamble.
I agree we are most likely going down short term, but after that I think a slow recovery is more likely than a full on bear market and we could be on track again after half a year or so. I think the fundamentals are simply too strong as during the last year there has been some serious real world adaptation for cryptos across the board, and the interest is huge. I think we might just not go down the way we did in 2018, as the are too many buyers with cheap money.
Could be wrong ofc, which is why I've been selling a lot last month, but I think there's a real chance this is just the beginning. If this is the case we might be looking at just the first leg of a multiyear bull market which could send us to 10+ trillion market cap with 100-150k BTC, 10-15k ETH in 2022-23 or so. This would coincide nicely with the eventual inflation from all the stimulus money too. This is something that would be insane enough I feel :)