Obviously there is no certainty with crypto (or any investment for that matter). Although there appears to be upside remaining over the next 72 hours, we also know that there are diminishing returns and increasing risk as time moves forward. I took a very small amount of profit Monday at 40.50. My plan is to reduce my exposure from here on out on the days remaining this week. That will give me some cash on hand to trade when the opportunity is right. (I have learned this the hard way with Bitcoin... when the music stops and everyone scrambles to find a chair... it's better to have a chair in site and close by.)
Disclosure, I am fully invested and have not exercised Ethereum elsewhere. I will be setting stop losses next in my exchange (and update daily) and will subsequently exercise manually in my PayPal holding at a certain threshold.
Obviously all of this is not specific financial advice. Enjoy it while it lasts while preparing for the worst. Take care!
Comment
⋅
I just heard that many traders got stopped out today! If we are down tomorrow, guess who is coming in to buy, me! Believe me - I've been there and learned my lesson. If you are confident that we are going to continue going up, lean in and take the risk. OTHERWISE take your profit when you intend to, not by accident.
If you have made 90% - why have a stop loss at 10% below the current level! That makes no sense. You might as well have taken 80% profit and then had the money on the side to buy in lower. And believe me, Bitcoin can gap down unexpectedly 17% and then be back up within minutes.
As it is, we are going to have people chasing -FOMO'ing- and that is going to drive the price up and down. Look for a better point to get in, a better time to get out - or just find another trade that suits you. Or else, take more profit at 60% and be thankful.
Comment
⋅
I've drawn out a potential wedge pattern that may coincide with the end of the Ethereum run vs. Bitcoin. If we break above the wedge (above the current resistance), that would invalidate the pattern. I am going to use this target area again to take some profit and I have been personally (not advice) moving into Bitcoin preparing for a run up relative to Ethereum.
Comment
⋅
Last update on this one...
Today we will see which direction we go. I'm assuming we will have a small bounce into the wedge. At that point, I think it is prudent to take a bit more off the table until we know whether or not this was a local top. This is by no means the end of the Ethereum run, but we have to consider the amazing run up to this point and that we may cool down for a while.
Note, it is always important to consider how long it takes for people to settle out their trades. Look at yours when you settle. That should be your last point to consider whether or not you want to stay in the trade, or wait it out while your cash settles. That will give you some idea of when the market may flow back in.
Comment
⋅
Well that short bounce this morning proved very short. And down we went.
If you are still in the trade at this point, you'd just be FOMO'ing. I did see buying this morning after the strong downward push. That may have been a short-term bottom following this upward trendline.
@Earthmatrix, Ha yes 3x from here would be golden.
Swaraj6688
⋅
is there any bottom yet ?
chillcrypto
⋅
@Swaraj6688, Unfortunately it is more likely to follow March behavior. But that is just one possibility. We could be dormant for the summer until a Fall breakout.
Irish8377
⋅
Thanks for this. I am new to Tradingview, but not new to ETHE. Took some profit yesterday, but considering what to do next.
chillcrypto
⋅
@Irish8377, Wait for a green light. The market is very speculative right now. That means most retail investors are responding to FOMO, with the best opportunities existing for us at oversold and overbought. Otherwise, from a 'most likely scenario' point of view, we are in a wedge and will break out to the upside. However if we overstay our welcome in this wedge, it increases the downside risk.
Irish8377
⋅
@conradkz, Thank you. I really appreciate the insight. I know ETHE is volatile and accepting said volatility is something I am adapting to. Usually I am in blue chip ETF's. I am just now learning the very basics of charts after a buddy who is big into crypto suggesting Tradingview, so definitely a curve. I do like the chart you present. I stumbled upon it just googling "ethe tradingview". I am a risk taker, but with this having 9-10% swing during the day, trying to digest if this risk is too much for me to handle. I usually just "set it and forget it" and make changes as needed.
chillcrypto
⋅
@Irish8377, I just took another point of view (which I try to do, so your thoughts are VERY much appreciated)...
The last time we hit a local top, pulled back, made another local top, pulled back, the pull back was extended. So I would say if we drop to $37.50, I'm taking more profit.
And yes I know, Ethereum will hit 10k this year - but not before we have a pullback.
When I got into Crypto, I listened to HODL. OK so I have HODL'd Bitcoin now and could have easily converted over to Ethereum for a while and bought at least one or more Bitcoins had I done that. No going back - but this is an example of, don't get so locked into your investments that you hang on for dear life no matter what the charts say.
Irish8377
⋅
@conradkz, Perfect. Thank you. We think alike, but you're way better on these charts. It's all retirement assets I play with, so while the end goal of 10k is something I do believe in, it's that ride to 10k. haha. Thank you again. Following you!
Other points for anyone else following this thread...
I have yet to trade out of my HODL'd Ethereum. I do plan to when the ETHBTC cross occurs. (Will chart that soon...) BTW can't say enough good things (so far) about eToro. I put that on auto-pilot and mainly use the alerts it sends me (I just got one) to keep track of the market.
When I started investing in Crypto last year, I had no idea what I was doing and made and lost money. HODL'ers were like avoid Grayscale so I did. But here's the thing they don't tell you - transaction fees and time to complete a transaction are becoming a problem. You don't have that with a Trust or Crypto ETF. Just trade the asset like you would any other asset. The other thing you did right was to not trade too often. I had that problem and not so much any more thankfully.