So after what I saw in the BTC charts, was wondering if Ether could provide me some room to increase the long position or take some profits. Boy, is it delivering! I saw the daily candle closing in what was looked like a bull trap, smelled like a bull trap and is certainly tasting like a bull trap. Shorted the 660€ price and will now go to sleep with a comfy stop-loss on top of the left yellow overextension percentages. I'm ready to give that big of a percentage to the stop-loss because I fully trust the indicators, not because I'm idiotic. And the indicators are telling me that there's not enough money buying in anymore with prices this high.
Bearish divergences in highs everywhere leave me no room to stay bullish, and the MACD histogram is certainly looking the same way. The market hasn't digested well the +12% green candle of May the 3rd, and is showing it in multiple indicators on the daily timeframe. Then, so be it! Let's get better prices to buy and paint bullish divergences in the indicators!
This is why people shouldn't trade on meme-grade indicators like the classic daily 200EMA and 50EMA crossover, as it can often mislead you into buying right before everyone starts selling (crappy emotional trading) which is absolutely what everyone logged in this website should avoid. There's nothing more silly than believing that two random exponential movig averages of the price crossing over give good entry points for trading. Weak mathematical arguments behind it, IMHO; I'd rather use stochastichs, the relative "nearby" strength index and the always trustworthy MACD. It certainly isn't a guaranteed win always, but when you fully understand what the number in an indicator means, you're probably going to get caught less times wrong-footed as interpreting market behavior is trivial when you know what's behind the curtain of numbers.
The scenario for the following days: we're heading towards the 600€ zone or lower (retest of the 38,20% percentile of the left white Fib, corresponding to the falling wedge we broke up weeks ago, or the yellow 100%). Price has bounced 645€-628€-638€-630€ while I was writing this post so watch indicators closely and always place stop-losses: volatility is picking up and we can swing up as easily as we can go down. Mind you weekly indicators are bullish, so the perfect combo of bull trap followed by a bear trap within a week is more than feasible. Thus, I don't know yet if I'm taking profits or increasing the long position; the only thing I know for now is I'm in a short position.
If the indicators manage to continue the green lines of hidden bullish divergence in lows, I will maybe consider increasing the long position since that would be a massive sign of a continuation pattern and the main trend I consider it to be bullish for 4 weeks now. But don't forget we're still in a bear market until Big Daddy Bitcoin manages to push north of 12K; cautions are not to be overlooked yet.
Be safe and please don't take the title too serious. Bart Simpson wouldn't do it either :D
Have a great monday!
Trade closed: target reached
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I never thought we'd dip that fast (>10% in a single day), fortunately it happened and the chart has painted enough bullish signs to consider the market at least neutral, not short. Specially when considering the Eth/Btc pair looks like it's heading north:
Why your TA is on ETHEUR and then you focus on ETHBTC?
elpokor
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@lucianob66, nice question, I'll give you my take on it: I was trading the BTC/EUR pair until I realised the massive opportunity that Ether was painting some weeks ago when we were in a middle of a bear trap in BTC/EUR and I was bored looking at other charts. Take a look at this two posts from april 25th
after that, I published this
So far, I'm still "actually trading" the ETH/BTC cause I bought into Eth with Btc just under the 0,07 price. Coinbase has really low trading volume for the pairing against €, often you'll see gaps in the 5-minute candle view, so in order to get a better view of what's going on in the market (and of course, because I entered into the market via BTC), I always double-check "bullishness" of the Ether market observing the pairing against Bitcoin as it has far more trading volume than the fiat pairings.
Those are my two cents, but feel free to give feedback if you consider so. Cheers!