The 140ish level has been a real pain in the ass for ETH' the past weeks. The past days it has been weaker than Bitcoin as well, which is something we have not seen much during sideways movements the past few rallies. There is a lot of noise in the market now, the big crypto's or simply not taking a direction and are moving sideways. My Bitcoin' analysis from a week ago, there was a very realistic chance for a good rally coming period, but i asked for some good bullish movement for the past week. We had a good start, but the past days has been a lot of sideways movement. Been several attempts from the bulls, few moments where there was a lot of big buying going on, but the bears just kept throwing in sell walls which stopped each rally.
I am not that confident about short term bullish movement, ETH' looks very weak at the moment. Moving below that blue curved line for days now. If we see that line break, we could see something happen again, maybe another attack of the 140ish level. Now since this 140 level has been such a big resistance level (neckline), we should see a big jump up when it breaks. If we don't see a big jump, i would be very careful with long positions.
Bigger picture: there is room for another drop towards 120ish and keeping that triangle intact. Because the last rally got stopped again around 160, this triangle could be real. If the bulls are able to touch it one more time, i think the chances will be like 80% that it will break it eventually. A third touch is usually a sign that bulls are in control, like a hidden bullish sign.
Short term, as long as we stay below that curved line, we have to assume we could see a drop again to 115/125. I think if it drops, probably be below last weeks low, so closer to 120ish. If we break the blue curved line, we should see an attack on the 140 zone. I explained above what we need to see if it happens.
Previous analysis:
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Still moving below that curved line, from the looks of it we could see it drop even more coming hours. Bulls need to break 134/135 to get away from that bear pressure on the short term. If we see an acceleration, we could see a move like that blue line, but would need volume to see that happen. A small double bottom around 130.5ish is also still possible. Similar to the 3800ish of Bitcoin
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Made quite the drop yesterday, but rallied up even stronger. So it could be the drop is already over. Think we will get our answer the coming 24H. I think a break of 130ish will be bad news again. A break of 134ish, should be a bullish sign, would mean the weight of that curved line is out of play. This triangle on the left could be something to watch
botje11, thank you for such an insightful analysis.
Friends, please take a look at my analysis as well!
I’ve reached a very similar conclusion about the price forecast for ETH/USD, but via different chart patterns & indicators.
You’ll certainly find it useful! I'd greatly appreciate it, if you leave your feedback!
botje11
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@Monfex, Thanks for sharing, curious to see, still a realistic chance for a break of your stop loss, but your bigger idea could still play out. Think might be an important week
youdamushi
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ETH is facing a serious selloff in ico's, which is also caused by the large amount of ETH transferred to the exchange yesterday. We could have seen the BTC break through the 4000 mark, but ETH seems to be dragging its feet
While ETH has the most code developers in the news, they can't decide whether the price goes up or down, and these ico COINS are eating away at ETH's market value bit by bit.
botje11
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@youdamushi, Thanks for sharing this info. That would put pressure on this indeed. It has been the stronger one since Dec, but weeks, just sticks out that it is weaker than BTC. So there should be something going on