ETHUSD Update: Higher low unfolds in the low 290s which establishes a subdegree Wave 2 bottom. All this market needs is a catalyst because in terms of price structure, this it is poised to push the 315 resistance.
So much for the head and shoulders everyone was afraid of. If that bearish reversal pattern was in play, we would be breaking supports, not forming higher lows. Many may not realize it, but it seems they try to outsmart the market, and you can't. Instead, let the market prove itself. As price action traders we are detectives, not warriors.
Higher lows as we know often lead to higher highs, especially in a strong market. Since this market is slow and lacks any significant catalyst, the subdegree wave 2 that we are currently in may linger and develop into a small triangle. This condition can lead price back into the low 290s and even into the 280s again. The key to this activity, (as I have written about in other reports) is watching the support levels. 279 and 263 still hold. As long as price stays above these proportionally bullish levels, expecting a breakout in the short term is reasonable.
In terms of wave count, subdegree Wave 3 is never the shortest wave, which means if this market enters subdegree Wave 3, in terms of proportion, price reaching the 350s makes sense. This market just needs a catalyst. Maybe, as some have suggested, BTC needs to cool off and those participants will pour into this market. A quick look at the ETH/BTC chart shows price consolidating within a significant support area, which adds to ETH bullish argument even further. A 320 resistance break will confirm subdegree Wave 3 is in progress.
In summary, the small higher low formation in the low 290s is a welcome bullish sign, but until a catalyst enters this market, a subdegree Wave 2 triangle is possible before subdegree Wave 3 unfolds. 279 and 263 support levels need to hold in order to maintain this bullish outlook. A breakout above 320 opens the door to my 350 target area, and at this point it is just a matter of time. Keep in mind I am NOT making predictions, anything can happen in this market. I am evaluating price structures, and making comparisons to get an idea of what is more likely to happen. Less experienced participants think they are jut looking at lines and candle sticks. What they are missing is that the patterns formed by these candle sticks provide information about the underling motivations of the buyers and sellers whose orderflow made those candles appear.
Comments and questions welcome.
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Bought 25% more at 291.68. Stop is 276. Target 340.
Looks to me like its behaving exactly as it did on the last wave.
mrmeeseeks
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I feel like I'm learning so much following all your posts, thanks @MarcPMarkets
MarcPMarkets
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@mrmeeseeks, I'm happy to hear that you are learning. I really try to make my posts educational as well as helpful for decision making.
rockmancuso
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I have to say, for as slow as ETH is moving, it sure has been consistent lately, at least in terms of Elliot Wave analysis...thanks again Marc!
kalinin.sergey
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Mark, reading you for a while. What price structure UR talking about if we are going south due market wave And do you really believe crypto is ruled by Elliot? To be honest, I'm not. BCH just an example
AndyinBrixton
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Couple of hours ago I tweeted to myself the worst thing about ETH is you could die from boredom waiting for something - anything - to happen.
Great that you're so positive about your read of this. Plus, BTC is up and it seems the crypto world is stirring once again ..
HaVy
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Hope it wont be a head and shoulder...
clemens.wan
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Love your analysis and work. If there's a BTC sell and ratio pump to altcoins - how will this affect the ETH price? I've seen the 0.7 ratio teeter even though I know most ICOs being released in the next few months are ETH smart contracts and people flip BTC/ETH to participate. I also feel like post-ICO prices pump like penny stocks with eventual sells from the initial investors.
MarcPMarkets
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@clemens.wan, thank you. Great question! There is an inverse relationship since many of the altcoins trade against BTC. Right now the ETH/BTC market is sitting within a significant support range. Which means ETH is poised to go higher in terms of BTC. Now in terms of the USD, there seems to be a different relationship, and that is where the confusion is. Any positive fundamental events will fuel ETH against both base currencies in my opinion. I'm curious, what are some of the ETH based ICOs coming out? When the coin reaches a market like Bitfinex or some of the others, yes there is initial selling from early investors, BUT if the coin has any merit, once it settles, and shows signs of stability in terms of adoption, and all those other factors, it can become a good investment opportunity. IOT is a good example. If the coin has no merit, or no real world use, then yeah it will be similar to a penny stock.