Characteristics and the Basis of this Chart - Forecast lines are Fibonacci in nature, not true TA - A retrace like this has happened before on a smaller scale - Pattern 'cloning' such as this one occurs on a regular basis - Low probability of occuring, market fundamentals do NOT support it
If you are interested in hearing more about WILD THEORY - Origins - Questions and Answers - Summaries
Then I suggest that you follow me.... and then go back and READ through my past 9 IDEA publications
READ ALL THE COMMENTS within those ideas... Because that is where I write pages and pages of details.
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What is the basis for a rise from the POV of manipulation?
Assuming these are huge players...
I think that a false bull run to say.. 9000 would get world attention.
At that point, institutional investors will excited and eager. On the other hand, Wallstreet is not ready to get in just yet, they want the price to TANK so they can buy in cheap.
This tactic hold both factors in check..
Then from this 'false top' a big manipulated price drop steals coins from panicked long positions. In turn, institutional investors cringe, further delaying their involvement.
How long would such a boom and bust cycle continue? Who knows.. but until regulation and big money jumps in.. the market is a sitting duck.
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Some potential events that could drive the price in either direction..
In spite of what most TA theorists will claim, REAL NEWS does affect the price and good market sentiment summaries for the week (as long as it is NOT fake news) is a bonus to price rises.
One would think these will have good outcomes in the news
- June 4 to forever - Ripple donated $50 ln to Universities to speed up adoption - June 5 to 13 - G7 Summit in Quebec - June 5 - Indonesia approves trading as a Commodity - June 5 to Infinity - USA's SEC approves new crypto chief and it's a woman :) - June 5 to Infinity - Coinbase launching in Japan - June 5 to Infinity - DHL is joining the blockchain movement - June 5 to infinity - ICO crackdown, big exchanges hailing this as good - June 5 - sudden BTC price rise just defied this morning's news
There are also more significant industry events coming during June.
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Price movement positives..
Dynamic Forecast URL is pointing UP at this minute (1:25 pm Miami USA)
Suggests price will climb higher
Negatives..
Big resistance at 7600...
Overbought conditions on BTC
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Today marks the official start of the Law of 6
Since I mistakenly posted my comment in the chat room below.. you need to read what I wrote in the chat area. (My apologies in advance.)
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The price has been moving mostly sideways the last 24 hours. However, we are probably going to see a rise.. as that the Dynamic Bitc Forecast web site shows a steep uptrend and on that same graph, we are on the negative side of the Fibonacci line.
In cases such as above.. and perhaps as often as 80% of the time, the swing goes high and the price rises.
Maintaining the gains from rise is whole different story.
Positive media news includes SEC not changing its laws for ICOs (and ICO fraud is a big hindrance to Bitc) and Goldman Sachs is seeking a banking license to deal with crypto... and Fidelity building a crypto exchange. These MAY add positive energy to bullish sentiment.
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Dynamic Forecast for Bitc is now pointing down.
For the price to hold ground, we need sideways or slightly positive movement.
If any of you believe in market sentiment as a headwind (I do) then here is some great news hat will affect us THROUGH JUNE 2018:
SEC Chairman Clayton stated that bitcoin is NOT a security. He restated the ICOs were securities. He defined why but did NOT clarify any further.
Susquehana, one of the largest firms of its kind, is expanding into crypto for its private clients.
Fidelity is building an exchange.
Institutional Investors are watching all this and it is suggested that the flat price we are observing is a period of accumulation.... which precedes positive price movements.
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This little drop we just had this evening...
- It wasn't much at all, but we still need to blow past Bitc 7700 soon - the trend line supporting the rise these few days is still in tact - but we are about to head downwind on the Dynamic Forecast webpage - I still think the overall good news (that I posted earlier) will help
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Bitc is spending a lot of time dipping in and out of the Ichimoku cloud
and that causes price movement to crawl at a snail's pace
Either way, everything is still looking healthy.
Visiting other rooms whose owners I respect, all seem to say we are going to make a hard break up or down... but it should start moving fast again.
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The entire market lost a lot of ground last night.
I partially blame FUD. The two biggest billionaires went on CNN late last night and really kicked the bejesus out of Bitcoin. I personally think these guys are morons when it comes to the NEW technology. They are OLD ICONS and represent the old ways... and are also threatened by what blockchain will do to their companies.
Either way, we're in a pickle.
Price needs to rise if we are going to resume a bull market.
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Correction, it was on CNBC.
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If you visit other ideas (I follow 15 people which is the limit, by the way)
you will see hundreds of people sharing ideas within idea rooms
People are very passionate about their ideas, TA work, etc.. and it's to the point everyone looks like they know what they are talking about. However, this is a particular moment where no one really knows what is going to happen next.
And even if people get the direction of movement correct, it may not be the path they imagined or mapped out.
It is probably not a good idea to buy or sell at this moment, unless you don't mind gambling the same odds as Las Vegas.
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Checking in with my favorite TA publishers on TA
A few say that we are due for a rise over the weekend.
- the weekend is usually good for positive price movements when the market is positive
- professional experts at my most trusted news outlets said the same thing
- we might see a rise in the 7750 area over the weekend
Keep your fingers crossed :)
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Price movement is still withing range and very boring..
Nothing to be alarmed about, just consolidation and possible accumulation.
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Here is a TRUNCATED article on what is going on with Bitc
The markets formed a large lopsided symmetrical triangle pattern. Price action is poised to break either above or below this triangle, with the current price of roughly 7.7k brushing up against both the ascending trend line that dates back to July 2017’s prices of 1.8k and the descending trend line of 20k to May’s 10k.
Analysis shows mixed signals, with steadily declining trade volume in recent weeks - likely indicating participants are opting to sit on the sidelines to wait for confirmation of bitcoin’s next major move.
Looking at the stochastic RSI, bitcoin shows conflicting signals across different time-frames. Shorter time-frames, such as the 1-day, 12-hour, 6-hour, and 4-hour, suggest that the BTC markets may be over-bought, with the stochastic RSI sitting above the 80-threshold.
Both the 1-week and the 3-day charts show the stochastic RSI to be underneath the 20-threshold – suggesting upward momentum shift could be imminent.
If the BTC markets can break above the symmetrical pattern in which the markets have been consolidating, it may be interpreted as a confirmation that the recent retrace has produced a higher low, acting as a catalyst for a 9k - 10k retest.
Should the markets snap below the long-term ascending trend line, many traders are predicting we will see a test of support at 6k for the third time this year.
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I was alarmed by the latest drop...
But a friend who also has a following on here stated that the AI bots would cause this drop. And then he published an 'I told you so" and I went to his room and asked him what is next.
He thinks we should go back up again.
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$ 15 Billion LOST in two hours - what happened..
The market in Japan opened and then crash begun. Plain and simple, US retail buyers are not holding the market up any more.
News outlets speculate that the news release of some a big hack of an exchange and the latest news about a Fed investigation inspired the drop. Regardless, there are TA pros on Trading View who predicted this drop... so media accusation remains to be seen.
Some of the best TA pros on here are saying will stay in this lower range for a while and one friend says we will bounce back up.
Bulls have stepped in to prop up price.. it's a small war going on out there.
and finally, two opposing symmetrical triangles are about to break, one long term, the other short term, each foreshadow opposing movements in price direction.
Lots of great market sentiment news...
And remember, I filter out the MICKEY MOUSE BS news...
- Universities show an up tick in Bitcoin investment. They deal with billions and usually lead the trend for institutional investors, so do not shrug them off.
- Institutional investors are gearing up, though most are aiming for September. I know it's June, but trust by September you'll WANT to hear this.
- Lots of good articles today about Bitcoin adoption world wide.
- S Korea's biggest exchange was cleared of wrong doing.
- One of the newest and largest mining farm will be ready in 12 months in Upstate NY
- 5.6 Million in Andy Warhol art is being auctioned in ETHER.. a good sign of crypto adoption to come
TradeClass
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Finally found out what the Law of 6 is all about...
Thanks to NO ONE (since out of the 7 people who brought it up in various idea rooms... AND when asked what it was, they fell suspiciously silent)
As I found it on my own on a trusted news website.
Law of 6 is an observation...
That over the last three months, the general trend of Bitcoin reverses on the 6th of the month
For example, if we start an uptrend today, that should peak by July 6th.
Which falls right in line with MY silly prediction at the top of the idea thread.
Since I subscribe to price manipulation, the Law of 6 would NOT surprise me
However, the market manipulators could just as easily pull the rug out from under us..
How? By using this artificial means to fool us when it becomes necessary to fool us.
Moral: Mr. T pities the fool who gambles on the Law of 6
TomPower
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@TradeClass, Its as credible as any theory in here. After following at least a dozen of the so called experts in here, BTC throws a curve ball
Kool_Keith
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This is refreshing...Manipulation Analysis!
What's your take on the 6th of the month theory?
TradeClass
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@Kool_Keith, I have asked 6 people and NO ONE wants to tell me. LOL
Tmac23
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Sir,
I really like your perspective and agree with your theory. I am brand new to trading and this entire community and have been mostly watching, trying to learn and been largely unsuccessful, so don't put much weight into my thoughts. Just curious though, what if your 00 play is based on a larger scale than the FEB to MAR time frame? It seems to me that your theory is still in play if you consider the late APR to present time frame as a mirror image of the larger JAN to mid MAR time frame (rather than the just FEB-MAR), where we are currently one more drop away from the bottom we saw in APR. Obviously not perfect, but on a 2hr frame, every rise and fall from late APR to present is represented in the rises and falls between JAN - MAR. It also seems that a lot of people are holding out and have been predicting/expecting one more fall to the 480-520 range before we are ready to start heading back up, which would make sense and work with your theory.
TradeClass
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@Tmcnerney23, I don't have much faith in THIS play. It's a wild card. So far it's happening.. but there is this huge rise we have to overcome. Not to mention, that if THIS is not their plan, then I am fanning cold ashes.
Bulls have stepped in to prop up price.. it's a small war going on out there.
and finally, two opposing symmetrical triangles are about to break, one long term, the other short term, each foreshadow opposing movements in price direction.
Lots of great market sentiment news...
And remember, I filter out the MICKEY MOUSE BS news...
- Universities show an up tick in Bitcoin investment. They deal with billions and usually lead the trend for institutional investors, so do not shrug them off.
- Institutional investors are gearing up, though most are aiming for September. I know it's June, but trust by September you'll WANT to hear this.
- Lots of good articles today about Bitcoin adoption world wide.
- S Korea's biggest exchange was cleared of wrong doing.
- One of the newest and largest mining farm will be ready in 12 months in Upstate NY
- 5.6 Million in Andy Warhol art is being auctioned in ETHER.. a good sign of crypto adoption to come