ETHUSD update: Pin bar forms in an attempt to break the primary bullish trend line. This candle stick pattern is usually a key requirement for a buy signal, but not the only requirement. This price action is tempting as a long signal, but the location makes it more risky than its worth.
At S.C. we apply rules based trading techniques to call our trades. The first rule is that price needs to be at a predetermined level (support or resistance). At the moment, price is fluctuating between the 575 support area (.382 of recent bullish swing) and the 741 to 845 resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish structure).
In order to go long, price needs to be gyrating around the 575 area and then establishing a bullish pin bar. The 575 area also happens to be where the secondary trend line is located as well which adds to the bullish argument. Or price needs to be testing the 493 to 434 support zone (.618 of current bullish swing) in order for a long signal to meet the criteria for taking risk.
Just like in BTC, there is nothing attractive or special about the current price area which means price action is more likely to behave randomly here. Situations like the one visible on the chart, are what lure traders who are driven by greed and focused on money into the market. They focus more on the potential profit rather than the probability of generating that profit consistently over time. Remember even when everything lines up perfectly, the trade can still fail. So imagine the performance over time of trades that are taken for no reason. The performance is completely random minus your costs.
In summary, either price pulls back further and retests the 575 level, or it pushes higher from here and retests a broad resistance zone. Momentum favors the push to resistance, but what kind of risk must you face at current levels? Would you be okay with taking a swing trade now, and then watch it pull back 100 points all while hoping it recovers? That is not the kind of trade that we would call whether it works out or not. Controlling risk is our primary concern, especially when sharing signals with the community. Forcing a trade is one of the more expensive bad habits that newer traders must shake as soon as possible. At S.C. we don't force trades, we wait until market variables line up so that we have a much better chance of coming out ahead consistently and avoiding low quality setups that randomly yield profits. The value is not in the profit, it is in the repetition.
Well, I've been following you for a while now and I can tell you got way fewer followers than other traders in here. I can see you focus on longer term consistency over taking crazy risk for quick high profit. But I can also tell as soon as market corrects big, or enters a long bear market, you will still be around and those who survived the crash, resposible people looking for real knowledge and consistency will be your follower and hype TAs will disappear. I saw this already happening in the bear momentum from the beginning of January..
I also see you are more clear in the explanations than before, you are detailing better from where to where and how you measure the levels, signals and so on.
Thanks for the TA.
Cheers.
UnknownUnicorn1065329
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I wanne be wrong but how long is it gonna take?
USalliencoin
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@Bleek, 9976 will be the top ? then turn down again ?
Majinga
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Thanks for sharing your TA. I am new to TA and I am learning so much reading people like you, thanks
Andbcoin
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Hi! Thanks for the chart. I really like your point of view.
I think it goes down, but maybe it goes up before just a bit. However, it's difficult to determine it because it's the wave 4 of the correction started in January, what means it has to complete the wave 5 before going up again and break this level.
If you use fibo retracement, you'll see it has touched 0.382. That said, it's difficult it goes up now and probably down.
@some_guy, Still in my plans. Corrective wave 4 can go to 0.382 or 0.5 Fibonacci. If it goes to the next level (needs to be confirmed), it will stop very soon.
That said, no FOMO for me.
;)
some_guy
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@Andbcoin, im with you. "buy boredom, sell thrills". :)
Andbcoin
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@some_guy, Totally agree. :)
A lot of people will get trapped here. Who knows if it will go to 0.5 Fibonacci or will stop just in the middle of these two levels? Or maybe you get in and suddenly... huge drop!
Very risky to get in atm. Maybe those buyers don’t have any idea of waves, Fibonacci, and other indicators and just buy because it was going up...
I will update the info, anyways.
I also see you are more clear in the explanations than before, you are detailing better from where to where and how you measure the levels, signals and so on.
Thanks for the TA.
Cheers.