I subscribe to the 4 year cycle hypothesis. With that in mind, I believe that the rest of 2022 and all of 2023 will be a long and dreadful accumulation period.
Keep in mind that in the last bear market:
- ETH dropped 94% from the top. - Accumulation period lasted for close to two years (from September of 2018 until July of 2020) - The price ranged from $80 to $350 - The breakout was triggered by BTC halving
The market has matured, of course, and we don't have the same barrage of selling from ICOs that collapsed the price from last time. That said, I still expect at least a 85% correction to around 750 bucks. I can see it go as low as 400.
Below that price, there's either a catastrophe elsewhere that's driven the dumb hoards to dump ETH to crazy low levels (e.g., covid crash in March of 2020), which means it's an opportunity of a lifetime OR something terrible happened and ETH is about to die.
My guess is that over the course of 2022 - 2023 we will see ETH range between $700 - $1700, and that the break out from this accumulation zone will take ETH first above 2k, then on its way to new ATHs.
I am, as stated, going off the last bear market and the 4 year market cycle hypothesis. The Merge for ETH is incredibly important and it is unprecedented, which means that there's very good reason to dismiss my speculations above.
Der sir Since 2017 I am following thousands of people. But I have not seen technical analysis like yours till date. What you have said has happened. Thanks for sharing your technical analysis. Can you tell me can I invest now on current situation?
fritzz
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@mazhardbd, Thank you. It's hard to say whether it's a good time to buy without a time horizon in mind. If we're talking over the next couple of weeks, then I think it's not a great time to buy. But if we're talking over the next couple of years, then it's not a terrible idea to have a small bag. If you look at my page, there's some other coins that look a bit better than ETH right now in the short term.
Thanks for sharing your technical analysis.
Can you tell me can I invest now on current situation?