There are two potential inverse H&S scenarios playing out for ethereum. I have overlaid both on the chart, one in blue and the other in green. We are currently in a potential bearish flag (purple parallel line) and it all depends on how this breaks.
Scenario #1 (green): the flag is currently forming at the 0.786 fib retracement since last bottom and top and may be a short term reversal, however this is not supported by the volume (trending down and full of bear activity). If this somehow breaks up then we could be forming a IHS that will probably be rejected at the neckline at first but then may cross on a second attempt. I recommend a buy at this break (on the pullback to retest the neckline) with a reasonable stop below the neckline. This might leave us in the area of $450-470 where I recommend a heard sell and then wait to see what happens. If we break that major outermost trendline then we might be headed to even higher highs but from my previous analysis I still see a leg further down so don't count on it. I'll have more analysis before then.
Scenario #2 (blue): the flag breaks downwards and touched the bottom trendline. Support here will confirm a typically bullish descending right angle broadening wedge where Bulkowski recommends a buy at this third touch with a pretty tight stop below the trendline. We would then likely work our way up to test the neckline, fighting through some resistances along the way, and eventually be rejected at first, drop down, create a right shoulder, retest the neckline, maybe get rejected slightly but then break and head towards the major resistance trendline where once again recommend a hard sell between $440-460. Don't follow the timeline of the drawings exactly, there should be a lot of up and down before the neckline is reached.
We had a very similar set up following the March $7200 bottom for bitcoin where the first push (similar to the last few days) came short of the trendline, consolidated, and the second push touched but then got rejected bringing us to new lows. I expect something similar.
This is up to 5 days out and a lot can happen between now and then and ultimately it relies on bitcoin and what its price action is doing. Both bitcoin and ethereum have room down and we should not yet be at our true bottom.
If we break this bottom trendline somewhere near the stop then don't bother jumping in until we see something more concrete. The market is still bearish so these are short term swing plays.
Peace and love,
crypt0guy
Scenario #1 (green): the flag is currently forming at the 0.786 fib retracement since last bottom and top and may be a short term reversal, however this is not supported by the volume (trending down and full of bear activity). If this somehow breaks up then we could be forming a IHS that will probably be rejected at the neckline at first but then may cross on a second attempt. I recommend a buy at this break (on the pullback to retest the neckline) with a reasonable stop below the neckline. This might leave us in the area of $450-470 where I recommend a heard sell and then wait to see what happens. If we break that major outermost trendline then we might be headed to even higher highs but from my previous analysis I still see a leg further down so don't count on it. I'll have more analysis before then.
Scenario #2 (blue): the flag breaks downwards and touched the bottom trendline. Support here will confirm a typically bullish descending right angle broadening wedge where Bulkowski recommends a buy at this third touch with a pretty tight stop below the trendline. We would then likely work our way up to test the neckline, fighting through some resistances along the way, and eventually be rejected at first, drop down, create a right shoulder, retest the neckline, maybe get rejected slightly but then break and head towards the major resistance trendline where once again recommend a hard sell between $440-460. Don't follow the timeline of the drawings exactly, there should be a lot of up and down before the neckline is reached.
We had a very similar set up following the March $7200 bottom for bitcoin where the first push (similar to the last few days) came short of the trendline, consolidated, and the second push touched but then got rejected bringing us to new lows. I expect something similar.
This is up to 5 days out and a lot can happen between now and then and ultimately it relies on bitcoin and what its price action is doing. Both bitcoin and ethereum have room down and we should not yet be at our true bottom.
If we break this bottom trendline somewhere near the stop then don't bother jumping in until we see something more concrete. The market is still bearish so these are short term swing plays.
Peace and love,
crypt0guy
Comment:
See my new analysis on Bitcoin that shows the blue scenario is more likely than the green since the two cryptocurrencies are heavily correlated.
Comment:
The green scenario ended up playing out. The neckline broke and there was a 3% push inside the next hour. Unfortunately, BTC did not follow suit and pulled ETH down with it as is expected when that happens. I would at this point invalidate these patterns. It looks more likely now that we are in a bearish flag pattern since late March.
Comment:
It ended up pretty dang close after all. I didn't expect to blast through that trendline.
