ETHUSD Update: The 310 buy trigger has been activated and price has retraced back into the support zone. At the moment this market is range bound and in order to show progress, the 313 to 325 resistance zone has to be taken out.
It is situations like this that especially require having a well defined plan and knowing your risk. I am long from 310, but not with an uncomfortable position. As long as this market can stay above the 276 support, it is still proving some stability. If price breaks below, which is possible, that will open the door for a revisit to the 260 and 230 support zones which I have been writing about.
My plan is to get out if price pushes below the mid 270s, and wait for stability to return before doing anything else. And if price pushes higher instead, I will look to add to my long position upon a break of the 330 resistance. Like I have written about before, I may not get the best prices, but I would rather have momentum going my way.
If you are a long term investor, and plan to hold and accept the risks involved, then building a position as price goes lower isn't unreasonable since none of the major supports like 208 have been taken out. If instead you are looking to capitalize on short term fluctuations. then you have to stick to your plan. This is why I calculate my risk/reward and my levels to add to the position if the market offers the opportunity and also why I add while momentum is in my favor and not against me.
An interesting note is that the two zones that price is stuck between, the 282 to 293 support and the 313 to 330 resistance happen to both be .618 areas relative to the recent bullish and bearish price swings. This is very typical of range bound price action. Also the ETHBTC market has not made a new high or new low, but I watch carefully because clues can appear on this chart first.
In summary, price needs to choose a direction and soon. A break below the 268 low will confirm bearish momentum and most likely push prices into the lower supports while a break above the 330 resistance zone will confirm bullish momentum and most likely retest the 350 area. The first sign of this would be a break above the 300 level. The big picture still has a bullish bias, so that may help price action along a more bullish path. The important thing to remember in situations like this, whether you are in a position or not, is the market must choose, not me or you. There is an element of randomness to all financial markets, and during times of indecision, there is little else we can do. Once the market offers a clearer picture, then it is all a matter of adjusting to the new information.
All absurd. Told you yesterday everyone trying to read charts are thinking this is the stock market. ITS FAKE MONEY!
Hold your money in cash. everything is going down until there is some positive news regarding the entire industry.
BTC $2900 ETH $205-220 LTC $48 OUCH!
kenzboard
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@BigD2017, finally some bleeping sense made on TV #hegetsit
RBmooney
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I wished id discovered your analysis weeks ago, as a noob it would have saved me a small fortune. Im under water atm but when things pick up again ill send you some tokens.
BigD2017
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YOU ARE ALL JUST GAMBLING... THESE CHARTS ARENT RELIABLE. ITS A NEW FORM OF SO CALLED CURRENCY (TULIPS), AND YOU ARE SPEWING NONSENSE. HOLD YOUR CASH. THIS IS JUST BEGINNING OF MAJOR CORRECTION. NORTH KOREA, CHINA AND NOW U.S. MAY GET INVOLVED. YOU COULD LOSE EVERYTHING.
MoeProblems
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@BigD2017, What if you went onto every crypto idea and posted this? That would be funny.
SuperShibe
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@BigD2017, you clearly don't see the bigger picture.
BigD2017
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I assume you sold. Broke mid $270's and heading lower. I see $230 as next level of resistance.
There is so much negative news out right now that all of these coins could drop another 30%.
Any investor who is even thinking about buying now or in the $300 range is making huge mistake.
Major correction is needed.
IMO, LTC is heading to the $50 level.
oshin11
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@BigD2017, 235-250...then 200-215....135-150. Based on how news plays out with China ban. Eth will be hit especially hard due to ERC20 tokens being confirmed as banned (ICOs). If we reach 135, all bets are off as it will confirm an M shaped double top reversal with a 135 neckline. That would be a crypto wide sell off with BTC in the 1500-2000 range and eth in the 85 +/- 20.
ahbahb
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@BigD2017, This is a particularly painful week for longs given all of the jawboning by authorities. I attribute this partially to the spectacular runup across the board in the last few weeks, they're obviously getting nervous... When Jamie Dimon condemns bitcoin in the same sentence as reporting that JPMs prop trading revenue guidance is -20% clearly he's talking his own book, and if anyone knows what a fraud is it's JPM lol! Cryptocurrencies are really no different than any other markets: they are subject to fundamentals, jawboning by market participants (side note, we must always assume that everyone is talking their own book period full stop so I assume from your comments here that you're short!) and authorities, trader behavior, etc. They are exceptionally volatile which makes them attractive for trading and they have momentum in terms of attracting new participants.
All trading is gambling to some extent and skilled traders are always managing risk and probabilities. When you take a position there is always the possibility that it will not go your way. If you manage risk and stick to your plan you will be OK no matter what the macro environment looks like. From what I can see on TradingView win rates for top posters in crypto vary between 50% and 75% depending on the week. If you manage risk correctly and target high R/R trades you will make money, even if you are stopped out in over 50% of your trades. I've heard it said that traders who excel at discipline and risk management will always do better than brilliant technical analysts for this reason. You can't lose everything if you manage risk correctly. This is a hard lesson to learn but we have to be prepared to take a loss to live to fight again. Put another way, would you rather have your stack tied up in a losing trade, hoping that the price will return or would you rather be stopped out and have your stack available to make more high probability trades?
LTC looked for a moment tonight like it might break through its support at $60, I agree that it will probably hit $55 or maybe even $50 before resuming its climb. To put that in perspective though $55 was LTC's ATH in July and then again on August 24th so retracement to those levels should absolutely be expected and required for further progress upward.
In short a market is a market is a market and to win we need a plan and a dispassionate approach, with those it will not matter whether it's soaring or crashing, in fact crashing is fine if you have access to margin to short.
All absurd. Told you yesterday everyone trying to read charts are thinking this is the stock market. ITS FAKE MONEY!
Hold your money in cash. everything is going down until there is some positive news regarding the entire industry.
BTC $2900 ETH $205-220 LTC $48 OUCH!