I see a symmetrical triangle pattern that has been broken. Several resistance zones on the way up from here which were taken from Trend-based Fib and historical resistance/support. As other markets move down, the move might be slow with large corrections, but overall trend should be upwards I think. Going long after first resistance zone is broken.
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Encountered a little more resistance than anticipated, however still on track. Looking to break through $1100 USD
Just goes to show how the market can destroy even the best idea : ( I was sure this was headed for $1500, back to the drawing board !
dimiboga
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Your eth/usd prediction is opposite than your btc/usd prediction. Historically this two coins going together up and down with a small percent of spread. Can you elaborate more on this 2 prediction ?
andrejsliepinieks
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@dimiboga, I had this conversation with a mate last night.
It is true that historically, everything appears to follow BTC. Certainly with ALT coins that are based on BTC blockchain that seems to be the case. I think what many people find difficult to differentiate though, is the fact that BTC is going up and down for 1 primary reason: Market sentiment. This sentiment can be affected by numerous factors that have nothing at all to do with BTC.
Example: If the Koreans say they're going to tax the hell out of crypto, or if coinmarketcap says it's going to remove all the Korean exchanges from it's data, this is news that affects the entire crypto market, not just BTC. The fact that everybody is eyeballing BTC and it goes down means sure, we might say "Oh, BTC is dropping so the rest must follow", but in reality this news would affect any crypto because it has an impact on the entire market.
If (however) SegWit2x is delayed or whatever, then we can expect to see BTC and ALT coins drop, but the coins based on other, different technologies remain unaffected. More and more we're seeing coins rise and fall on their own accord of late. Both XRP and ETH have had very nice bullish runs before and after Xmas, all while BTC was trending down. IMHO this is a perfect example of a situation where the market can show clearly opposing views.
So, onto the two charts. I'm only a novice, so I won't pretend I know anything you or anybody else doesn't. I'm just trying to learn the craft of analysing and detecting potential patterns in price, volume, trends etc. That said, chart analysis has absolutely zero to do with sentiment. So while I stick by my analysis, it doesn't mean some news could come out that makes the analysis complete rubbish.
In the case of BTC, it was pretty clear to me that the pattern was an XABCDE Elliot triangle correction. I don't think there's any doubting that. I think the biggest problem with my prediction is the fact I've suggested it might break through the 9k support level.
As for ETH, that was a far more simplistic (and probably short-sighted) prediction based purely on the fact that it seemed to have broken the trend / channel, which indicated the existing correction had completed based on Fib extensions and long term trends.
Once again, I'm completely open to criticism here as I'm not an expert by any means.
Just trying to learn!
andrejsliepinieks
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@andrejsliepinieks, Here's an example of ETH vs BTC, 9th Jan to 14th Jan.
dimiboga
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@andrejsliepinieks, Certainly that's a good answer. I believe Btc can have a separation but not as big as you suggested especially that soon. I also predicted the eth to hit the 1400$ mark, except of-course bad news , which lately is the norm in the market.