Very glad I got spooked around $313 and closed out my long position for a small gain. I didn't see enough explosiveness when testing the $320 resistance, and as such the rally ran out of steam.
From a macro level, we also have ICO cashouts effecting the ETH/USD pair in a bearish way.
My prediction is for trading to continue bouncing around the downtrend channel. Now that the 0.618 fib has been breached and is now acting as resistance, I predict short-term price action between the 0.618 and 0.382 fib retracement levels.
After we stabilize and find a new solid lower support, I am going to open another long position. For the next few months, I imagine the interests of the ICO cashouts will have a big impact on the price level. I think each major bump up in price will be sold rather quickly, resulting in some sideways action for 1-2 months before a new solid uptrend can emerge. I'll be updating my analysis, but my preliminary strategy will be to buy dips and sell peaks, not holding a position for much longer than a few days.
I'd appreciate your thoughts!
Cheers!
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The support target @ ~$243 matches up with sifeij chart as well: