EuroMotif

ETHUSD short term bear scenario: Ethereum retrace not done yet?

COINBASE:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
Quick plot to lay out the possible path for one more dip that might be about to start
I am actually BULLISH on Ether but trying to keep neutral in analysis.
Bulls need to get above 154 quickly to invalidate this scenario.

The leg down was a 5 wave impulse, which is what a wave (A) should be.
We might now be in a wave (B) which should be a 3-wave structure.
If we do drop here, then 140 comes into sight for end of wave (C).

.

Background:
My ETH journey started a Fib observation from the bottom
Once that played out, I was looking for the retrace zones to enter long again
Above zones played out and as bounce progressed I saw 152 and 156 as possible targets
Then I saw the top coming, sold, and was looking for re-entry zones:
Got some long scalps in per above plan. But now I am wondering if we go down for another leg
Jan 03
Comment: Of note, in the live chart on top, there is a very faint zone. I have made it more visible here clearly we are stuck between these energy bands. Breakout to either side could be powerful, especially if it bounces around in there for a long time (several hours)
,
Jan 03
Comment: Bulls are strong, broke up through the first resistance zone with some gusto. Now comes the blue fib of this entire leg up from 144.46
Jan 04
Comment: It definitely noticed that 4.618 but bulls still look strong
Jan 04
Comment: Interesting, so it may be this green fib that is working the price right now looks like a perfect impulse within, perhaps making a bigger wave 3 for now.
Jan 04
Comment: Odds of the planned ABC have decreased dramatically. and ofc if we get a new local high then maybe I was being overly pessimistic. not out of the woods quite yet, and we EU/UK waking up soon. That part of the world often sells in their morning. So the price AND time are at a critical point here.
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Jan 04
Comment: Bulls looking to flip previous resistance into support
Jan 04
Comment: Here are the EU/UK morning bears. Lets see if bottom of this zone turns into resistance again
Jan 04
Comment: here we are, last support before 145 imo
Jan 04
Comment: This leg pierced the 1.618 on micro TF, so I am suspicous of this little bounce
Jan 04
Comment: 1.6198 confirmed as relevant. But was pierced previously, so still suspicious.
Jan 04
Comment: sure enough, the 1.618 gave up. Now to watch the 2.618
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Comments

Have to watch out for those shake outs. This market is savage :D
+1 Reply
Sir, Your job is excellent. But I couldn't understand how do you set different kind of Fibonacci tool. Please explain if its possible for you...the details about Fibonacci setting & how do you find out retrace & buying zone in green color.
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@xsoffer, Hello. I use the Fibonacci tool quite differently than most people. Basically, I find a clear and strong move, and put the 1 and 0 of the 'Fib Retracement' tool around that move. Then I go into the Fib's Settings, and add various lines. I look for ''Extensions'' or ''Multiples'' of the first move. Here is a recently posted Idea that shows two different Fib Series interacting Also, I have an older Idea with a TON of examples (scroll down on that one to see the numerous examples).
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xsoffer EuroMotif
@EuroMotif, Thanks a lot dear. Last time I have trying to copy you but didn't find out the mystery of Fibonacci. Here is the example .
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Dude, using 5 and 1 minute time frames is no way to go through life.
Reply
Nice analysis.
FWIW I believe https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITFINEX%3AETHBTC has started an uptrend cycle, which should help ETH/USD a lot.
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excellent analysis
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Excellent TA
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U were right

I put position to get out but didn’t fill

We went down through it all


Cheers
Reply
It’s also following big papa. Step by step
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