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EuroMotif
Jan 4, 2019 4:08 AM

ETHUSD short term bear scenario: Ethereum retrace not done yet? 

Ether / United States DollarCoinbase

Description

Quick plot to lay out the possible path for one more dip that might be about to start
I am actually BULLISH on Ether but trying to keep neutral in analysis.
Bulls need to get above 154 quickly to invalidate this scenario.

The leg down was a 5 wave impulse, which is what a wave (A) should be.
We might now be in a wave (B) which should be a 3-wave structure.
If we do drop here, then 140 comes into sight for end of wave (C).

.

Background:
My ETH journey started a Fib observation from the bottom


Once that played out, I was looking for the retrace zones to enter long again


Above zones played out and as bounce progressed I saw 152 and 156 as possible targets


Then I saw the top coming, sold, and was looking for re-entry zones:


Got some long scalps in per above plan. But now I am wondering if we go down for another leg

Comment

Of note, in the live chart on top, there is a very faint zone. I have made it more visible here
clearly we are stuck between these energy bands. Breakout to either side could be powerful, especially if it bounces around in there for a long time (several hours)
,

Comment

Bulls are strong, broke up through the first resistance zone with some gusto. Now comes the blue fib of this entire leg up from 144.46

Comment

It definitely noticed that 4.618
but bulls still look strong

Comment

Interesting, so it may be this green fib that is working the price right now
looks like a perfect impulse within, perhaps making a bigger wave 3 for now.

Comment

Odds of the planned ABC have decreased dramatically. and ofc if we get a new local high then maybe I was being overly pessimistic.
not out of the woods quite yet, and we EU/UK waking up soon. That part of the world often sells in their morning. So the price AND time are at a critical point here.
.

Comment

Bulls looking to flip previous resistance into support

Comment

Here are the EU/UK morning bears. Lets see if bottom of this zone turns into resistance again

Comment

here we are, last support before 145 imo

Comment

This leg pierced the 1.618 on micro TF, so I am suspicous of this little bounce

Comment

1.6198 confirmed as relevant. But was pierced previously, so still suspicious.

Comment

sure enough, the 1.618 gave up. Now to watch the 2.618
Comments
jscduk12
Have to watch out for those shake outs. This market is savage :D
xsoffer
Sir, Your job is excellent. But I couldn't understand how do you set different kind of Fibonacci tool. Please explain if its possible for you...the details about Fibonacci setting & how do you find out retrace & buying zone in green color.
EuroMotif
@xsoffer, Hello. I use the Fibonacci tool quite differently than most people. Basically, I find a clear and strong move, and put the 1 and 0 of the 'Fib Retracement' tool around that move. Then I go into the Fib's Settings, and add various lines. I look for ''Extensions'' or ''Multiples'' of the first move. Here is a recently posted Idea that shows two different Fib Series interacting
Also, I have an older Idea with a TON of examples
(scroll down on that one to see the numerous examples).
xsoffer
@EuroMotif, Thanks a lot dear. Last time I have trying to copy you but didn't find out the mystery of Fibonacci. Here is the example tradingview.com/x/sabueDN5/.
Paradigm9
Dude, using 5 and 1 minute time frames is no way to go through life.
ReallyMe
Nice analysis.
FWIW I believe tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITFINEX:ETHBTC has started an uptrend cycle, which should help ETH/USD a lot.
luissjp
excellent analysis
tuguldur.v
Excellent TA
meveme
U were right

I put position to get out but didn’t fill

We went down through it all


Cheers
meveme
It’s also following big papa. Step by step
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