ETHUSD Update: 303 to 308 minor resistance prevents any upside progress, but the 280 support has not been taken out which puts this market in a range. Most likely price action will stay this way until the highly anticipated fundamental events are out of the way.
Even as BTC almost reached 5k and retraced, this market has not made any moves that are worth the risk from a swing trade perspective. As far as day trading levels, again if you are up for that (I do not day trade these), the 286 area is supportive, while the low 300s is your minor resistance. If you have the time, patience and system to help you navigate that range, small profits can be extracted, but you seriously need to make sure your risk is small. If the 280 support breaks for any reason, it will most likely trigger more selling because of the double top that has been established at the 315 level.
With that being said the 303 to 308 minor resistance (.618 of recent bullish swing) can also establish itself as a lower high since price has tested it twice without making any progress. This type of lower high is a bearish sign and can lead to the support breaks mentioned in the above paragraph and in previous reports. The lower high is not in play until the 280 area support is taken out.
Often range bound markets can break out either way, it really is all dependant on the perception of the outcome of what ever event this market is waiting for. Taking any positions ahead of time in anticipation of a break out is not worth the risk. And if anything, the top of this range is a lower high compared to the 400 level, along with the 320 to 350 resistance zone (.618 of bearish swing) which has not even been touched, the bias continues to be bearish in the short term. Since I am not shorting these markets, I have no choice but to stay out and let the market decide.
In summary, if you zoom out and look at this market from a broader perspective, you can argue that the current price structure is forming a lower high which can eventually become a higher low. This can be confusing and again is better left to the market to ultimately decide. Remember, there is nothing to miss out on. If the market breaks higher, there will be plenty of opportunities to get onboard. If it breaks lower, it will eventually offer buying opportunities at great prices which is in line with buying as an investment (core position). In my experience, it is always better to let the market choose because it won't cost you anything, and when conditions are clear, you will be much more prepared and more confident to participate.
Since a month I follow you, but you never speak of the right time to go back ...
All the opportunities we miss is crazy
HeHateMe
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@bingbang199, Marc is a superb mentor. Take a step back, listen to what he says, learn and you will know when the right time is. You are responsible for your own action/inaction, not Marc.
ixflo12341
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@bingbang199, it's true.. I found it seems more of Marc style than what market shows.. I went to check all his post during last ride of ETH, I found the same thing. He wont say anything sure until it was obvious to most people..
jasonlau924
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@bingbang199, by following Marc's analysis. I was able to make better decisions. I was being patient and didn't get in bitcoin or ethereum end of August to mid September. Got in when risk/reward ratio was good, and traded with momentum. Basically 0 pain, but awesome gains. He is one of the best analyst here. He is not a signal provider, but you learn his mentality and thinking, and it makes you become a better trader. He is also doing this for free. Do your own charting.
sgemini
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@bingbang199, I like Mark because he makes me be more reasonable when I go maniac :D
raghavgrover013
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Market has chosen to go up...but not above 350 yet .. what do you think ?
kargs
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Market has chosen? Update please :)
KimJonUn
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Unfortunately everybody migrating from altcoins to BTC. Altcoins will stay suffering. I see this too late but i could repair and get in BTC at 4760. Good luck for everybody.
dnldnz
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Mark, could you explain again or post a link to a post where you explain why you are afraid of shorting these markets?