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Here is my updated overview of the Weekly Ethereum ETHUSD Bear and Bull Cycles on the log scale. It seems at least for now the Megabull trend expired for Ethereum as expected around December 2021 with a top at $4,800-4,900.
Now a Bear Market is potentially starting but confirmation is needed with Sunday January 2nd's candle closing below the $3,860 1W Bollinger Midband.
There are major signals that cannot be ignored anymore on Ethereum at this point pointing to the Bear Market starting:
- Broke below the 1W Bollinger Midband at $3,860 - Broke its long-term log bull parallel channel similar to 2018 - 1W Momentum indicator flashing a sell signal similar to 2018 - An unconfirmed double top bear reversal at $4,400-4,900
I have also overlapped the 2018-2019's Bear Market's fractal to offer a quick comparison against the current price action. The last time we broke the 1W midband the the log parallel channel we dropped roughly 50%. Should we confirm this full-blown bear market, then look for a final bottom near $780-680 by October 2022 through January 2023 with a $150-100 margin of error.
Please note that the entire setup can be VOIDed if Ethereum regains and closes a Weekly above $4,250
Best of luck and happy trading! Carl M.
Comment
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laying out nicely so far. Next stop test of the 1W bottom bollinger band at $2900-2700. Should provide some relief bounce but then I suspect we see $2000-1900 eventually.
I see a wedge on the 9M breaking to low 2000s, maybe down a bit further.
But on every TF up from 3M, price action alone looks solidly bullish.
We have enormous volume for $1,700 floor (triple btm even on 1M).
If anyone thinks that will easily fall, they are going to see just what this meme generation truly values: The promise (and perpetuation) of generational wealth within seconds.
BitcoinGuru
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@XanaduRising, If we do close this Week below $3,860 and drop then we could definitely build a floor at either $3,000-2,700 or $2,000-1,700. Time will tell though. Also I do agree we do not have to repeat the old cycles, we have bigger institutions and new players compared to 4 years ago. The game may be totally different.