ETHUSD Update: The 215 minor support held as price slowly climbs back into the 227 to 240 resistance zone . The 215 support is a higher low structure which is usually a sign of further strength, but the problem at the moment is lack of follow through which can be attributed to low volume . If this market fails to take out the 240 resistance, a retrace back into low 200s is possible.
The lack of excitement or volume may be stemming from the BCH price action as one trader pointed out in my previous report. The price action in BCH is the kind of chaos that I expected in the BTC and ETH markets on Tuesday. It has a 300+ dollar range (in 1 day) and is still on the move, while the regulars move with muted enthusiasm.
The area to keep an eye on at the moment is the 227 to 240 resistance zone . It is related to the .382 of the recent bear swing that came off the 412 high. The fact that a higher low has formed beneath it is a bullish sign and a push above 241 is more likely which should take price into the next resistance in the 250 to 280 zone. IF price manages to push beyond that, then the 306 resistance area (.618 of broad bear swing) is the next obstacle.
In order to get price moving toward these levels, there needs to be a catalyst to kick start the volume back into this market. Something along the lines of "The SEC approves ETH ETF" would get things moving at the speed that we have been accustomed to in this market.
Keep in mind IF we do not break the 241 resistance, and price fails here, that would signal short term weakness and likely be followed by a retracement into the low 200s along with consolidating price action. The 215 and 210 supports are likely to break in this scenario because the 241 resistance is of greater magnitude and I would look to the low 200s to low 190s for reversal patterns back up.
In summary, slow markets can be caused by many factors like the ones I have highlighted in my reports. Opportunity still exists on the short term, it just requires more patience. If a bullish catalyst appears out of nowhere, this market should push higher beyond the 241 resistance and into the 250 to 280 area before it finds another level to hesitate. These levels serve as good targets if you are looking to maximize short term profits. If price retreats from the current level, it is nothing to panic about in my opinion, as long as it holds the 190s or high 180s.
Comments and questions welcome. Anyone interested in seeing a BCH evaluation?
@MarcPMarkets Thanks for the update Marc! It is testing $241 at the moment as you said.
MarcPMarkets
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@view_trade, yeah I have written two updates since this evaluation. The 241 break was certainly a significant event and will serve as a support level upon any price retrace.
iarrow
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hi, do you think is buy signal now ?
MarcPMarkets
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@iarrow, my buy signals are not based on breakouts. Breakout strategies are viable strategies, just not my style, especially for longer time frame trades.
Doppler17
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@MarcPMarkets which time frame is the chart in and what is your usually go to? Thanks!
MarcPMarkets
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@Doppler17, this is a 4 hour chart. I always start with the larger time frames, like weekly and work my way lower.
Its how u said, patience for this moment, because the volume isn't helping us.