This_Guhy
Long

ETHUSD Either 300 or 365 is going to be a issue. Maybe both.

KRAKEN:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
I have taken several looks at the falling wedge on ETHUSD and I went looking for a larger structure and saw the role the area around 365 has been a major issue in the past and it seems it is still the case. If you replicate this chart and look at a lot of these candles wicks and closes you will see a lot happens within a few percent of 365, be it candle close, high or low.

The price action on ETHUSD has fallen to the blue trend line again, and if we perform an acceding triangle or similar continuation pattern we are going to be waiting a while, even if it executes 2/3rds of the way through. Even if we take the lower value of 300 we see a lot of activity, but it seems to be less active to me than 365 for the life of the chart but very helpful recently. The accending triangle would perform a lot sooner as well.
We might find an acceding triangle on 300, or we may find it just acts as a waypoint on a channel. There are lots of possibilities but they all look to the upside in the short run. And all of these formations have a chance of breaking to the downside, which is what I think we may see. But first, a rejection at either 300, 365, or the top of the rising channel . I still stand by my call of BTCUSD to $1.2-1.4K depending on exchange and so I expect this to be one of the last uptrends of the bull trap for crypto.
Comment:
Some progress is being made on the wedge but it is still in the nascent stages. Price action recently mounted the 20 SMA and appears to have found support. The short dashed trend line provided support and now acts as resistance, and we are going to test that trend line again, as well as the 400d SMA simultaneously. The 400 SMA acted as resistance for about a month between mid may and mid June and again to help define the lower half of the wedge.

I suspect the blue dashed trend line will provide more of a bother for my long position than the moving averages will based on how long it held as support.


Below is a bollinger band and RSI/Stoch chart. In general, if the price action pops out of the 3 day 3st.dev bollinger band that is a great place to take profit on your margined position because price action usually either moves sideways or retraces to the BB baseline. The indicators shows we have wound up for quite the move.

Once I take profit I'll probably re-assess to re-enter a margined position. My leveraged take profit goal still at $360.

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