The past few hours have been hard to read because of EEA3, resulting in a spike and then GDAX crash. I'm looking to hold the bottom of this channel. Every hour it holds makes me more confident the channel will hold to ~300, though I think it will be a bouncy ride because people have been waiting to buy in for a while. I'll be looking to sell bit by bit if we fall out of the channel, and then wait for another bottom. No idea where that would be other than maybe a retest of 130, but that sounds a little crazy for me. I think there's good buying power still at 150 and if I see anything that looks like a bounce there I'll be likely to enter long.
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I'm also thinking that the channel resistance could be lower because the EEA3 spike can definitely be considered an anomaly. The first two peaks stitch together a more modest line that kisses later peaks and cuts below the EEA3 spike. I'm still long on either of those.
LoL Mark,
I like your percentage of 70% better. I am just not that confident in my skills to achieve that. Maybe someday. Take care buddy and send me some tips if you come up with any , please. Take care
Curtis :)
cgavel
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Appreciate the thought but, what happens if you sell on a dip and this takes off like it did previously? Now you must up your fiat investment to keep the same amount of crypto you had previously. It is all a gamble. Based on the original investment I made to ETH. Unless it went to 10 to 15 dollars I can't lose. Up 500 to 1000 percent as is. Now, if you have a hefty profit in ETH and you want to trade, then just take 25 % and that way you win some or lose some. Little less risky than betting for home run every time.:) I was not referring to your macd in my statement, sorry if you took it that way, I was being funny, generalization of what we look at, and how frustrating it all can be at times. When we get mixed or vague signals from the charts or a head fake from the markets. Good day and thanks for responding.
markuswoltjer
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@cgavel, Somewhat, but a bet like mine here has something like 70%+ confidence, and while I may lose some, if I have that success rate on average, I'm winning my short game and gathering ETH as I go, and I have pretty good confidence in the long game (a few years), which is where the most of my profits will come from. If you trade randomly (fees excluded/avoided) you get, on average, the same result as holding, no matter the long term trend. If you really want to play safe, don't roll... but on predictable trends like these you're coming out ahead if you roll a 3 or higher (D6). I know it's a personality difference and a finances difference (I need more earnings to finance my plans for travel, education, and investment, sounds like you're rolling smooth), but it's also something I enjoy. Good luck and enjoy your day as well :)
forkknife777
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And out of the channel we go!
markuswoltjer
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@forkknife777, I'm not convinced the trend will break until we drop a lot more.
cgavel
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I always find these hard to read. I know we get higher highs and higher lows and a breakout from the downward channel looks bullish. If the macd is ??? Lmao. Well, try to figure out how I just got lucky buying in at $11.00 and some on the way up. Then bam a long slow crash to 130.00. Now swift rise to 245.00 slight retrace. Well folks, I'll have to say that I haven't had this emotional roller coaster ride since I went through basic training in the Army, many years back. Good luck to all and make lots of money. I am long, not selling till we hit $700 plus.so it's stop watching this thing and wait.
markuswoltjer
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@cgavel, I have the MACD on there mainly for quick trades to buy and sell with the rises and falls whenever I have time, but my long position pretty much means that whenever I'm doing other stuff or sleeping I'll keep my money in ether. I suggest not just waiting for 700+, but doing a little trading along the way so you don't lose 70% of your value on the long crawl back to 130. Holding fiat during the long bear runs means you can just buy even more eth whenever you think we're around a bottom.
khandujarohan
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I am in the Same boat mate, bought @ 225 waiting for it to go back to sell and re-enter the trade.
markuswoltjer
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@khandujarohan, depending on how much risk you can take, that sounds kind of late. People on ethtraderpro were still saying it was a bull trap until about noon today PST. I wasn't so sure, because it seems that the people there want to differentiate themselves from young traders who are overly optimistic, so they try to put on the cold and calculating pessimism. I woke up on Sunday to see it at 130 but wanted limit orders to trigger instead of placing a market order, and then got frustrated with that and had to rush some homework. I felt so horrible seeing it at 160, but I still bought it there, thinking I could sell if it wasn't actually a break. Again feeling stupid/greedy for not selling at 245 today since it had gone up too sharply... now I'm a bit too involved psychologically, and need a simple plan to stick to. Hence this. Also I forgot to put it in but there's definitely a resistance level at 240-245 (see July 8-10). Good luck!
I like your percentage of 70% better. I am just not that confident in my skills to achieve that. Maybe someday. Take care buddy and send me some tips if you come up with any , please. Take care
Curtis :)