I see three possible scenarios in the near future. Stop set at 275 to cover all 3 possibilities. Longs will win in every case.
1) If it recovers from the bounce at 340 resistance and is able to break through, we can expect a top of highest degree wave 3 around 760 (calculated 2.618 FIB of wave 1-2).
2) I feel like ETH might form an ascending Bull wedge here if it does not break the 340-350 resistance. This would give an opportunity for a double bottom in the 200s price range (midway through the wedge). The fate of highest degree wave 2 would be sealed and a possible highest degree wave 3 top of around 715 (calculated 2.618 FIB of wave 1-2) could come next.
3) If it does form a wedge, and is unable to break 340's on second attempt, it could form a triple bottom in the wedge. Final bottom at around 240s area finishing off highest degree wave 2 and making way for possible top of highest degree wave 3 at 710s (calculated 2.618 FIB of wave 1-2).
This is my first attempt at charting, and I'm just learning Elliott Wave theory. Please feel free to offer constructive criticism as it will help me refine and learn. Also, I have no idea how to project timing. I just estimate based on length of previous waves... If you know a better way, I welcome your input.
Comment
⋅
Comment
⋅
Looks like ETHUSD found a nice slow channel for up move. 350 is the test I see.
If it breaks that I will stay long and plan some trades around 380.
If it doesn't, i expect a safe move to bottom of channel for retest later.
I set my stop at 343 just in case it does break below channel.
Comment
⋅
Looks like scenario 1 is out. Since the last impulse failed to extend beyond highest degree wave 1, it cannot be wave 3. Since medium range dip crossed what I called wave 1, it seems to suggest it is now in a triangle and not making an impulse run as I had hoped.
I suspect it will now take another run up and test the 380ish range again. The Chinese ICO ban hit ETH hard since it was the medium for many ICOs. This suggests to me that scenario 3 is most likely. I do not expect price to break past 350-380 range before dipping back down to complete wave E of large triangle.
Comment
⋅
Update to my projected triangle now that it looks like another bottom has been reached. Top is still a rough estimate, but 380 keeps popping up in all the trend lines I draw.
I can see either a breakout from the recent bottom (after ABC waves) or following through with D&E waves for breakout later. Both scenarios seem pretty feasible right now. Lets see what happens in the 380's. Either way, I'm still long.
Short term stop updated to 270's
Comment
⋅
Updated Elliot symmetrical triangle for "D" top. I'm thinking wave E to bottom out around 265ish before beginning wave 3 up.
Stop updated to 245 in case it fails to break up.
Comment
⋅
Approaching top of triangle. Looking for breakout to signal more up movement. Could bounce off and return to 290-300's if no breakout.
Comment
⋅
On track so far. 500$ is posing some resistance. I see up movement after either a positive break out of current consolidation or a retrace to previous upward channel. I think 600 by the end of the year is very possible.
Nice job, your pretty advanced charting and your views on where it is going sound a little too optimistic but, you never know. I would high five you if any of these scenarios come through, :) good luck.
AngryBoris
⋅
@cgavel, Thanks for the comment. I agree with you on my high hopes. 2.618 FIB is probably not gonna happen. I'd be very happy to see it break 450 (just under 1.0 of wave 1) which is think is extremely possible. Here's hoping! Good luck to you as well.