I stumbled upon this fractal similarity which is quite amazing in its really high degree of similar behaviour.
We can see that all the areas denoted with 1-4 are matching almost exactly.
So whtat does this mean for the future behaviour? It would mean that we'll see a slow climb in Nov/Dec, a sharp sell-off in January at point A, which could fit, because historically January has not been a good month for BTC and alts.
Then, a rally in March, and then the subsequent slow start of the next bullrun, which as we know builds up very slowly, so I assume the peak in this scenario would be in 2021.
I am still remaining neutral though, because first, BTC must break the logarithmic resistance for me to see this scenario as a very high probability scenario. But it certainly is a probable scenario. This means that we are seeing the bottom right now, and we'll basically have a few more months of boring sideways, until the next bullrun peaks up steam in mid to end of 2019.
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I should also add that this indirectly would imply a stable phase of bitcoin. Because ETHUSD mostly follows BTCUSD, the above scenario can only work if Bitcoin acts correspondingly. Let's see if it will :)
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If however, BTC takes the route to a low of 3k in 2019, as I have been suspecting since early this year, then of course this fractal is invalidated. Because let's be brutally realistic here: ETH is following BTC. And you can do the math how low ETHUSD will go if BTC indeed goes to 2-3k area in a few months. ETHUSD will have a low of around 50 USD.
I am a bit confused. Bitcoin and ETH are correlated as close as .95 (almost 1 to 1) which would be a beta of 1, since November 2015. I am not acquainted with fractal study's or analysis. Interesting though.
Jefe
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Oh God. I feel for it for a minute. You're comparing Apples and Oranges.
SebastianofMoon
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@fakhan, Wrong. The underlying mass market / herd psychology doesn't change in different markets. Especially crypto markets show a very similar behavior.
tradewithmefx
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@fakhan, LOL WRONG, it would be comparing a green apple to a red apple if anything... comparing an apple to orange would be more like comparing google stock to eth or btc…
tradewithmefx
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going off this that would mean the ma would have to drop 1 more block and almost cross the next one... that means price would cross the ma around 250-260 hit 300 then drop, that will make up for the lower low u have at 130... this means it will make a higher low instead of a lower low so the drop from 300 would prob put us back around 200 before the bullrun
tradewithmefx
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@tradewithmefx, and to add, I see it hitting support at 250 when it hits 300 and us starting the rest of the btc trend from there
@tradewithmefx, Thanks for your Analysis. Yes, i agree, I also see it that way. It would be fascinating if this really came true. Would let fractals shine in a whole new light. 200-300 USD Range for ETH now, same as for BTC a few years ago. Exciting Times!
kenzboard
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@FlaviusTodorius67, i started following this same idea a couple months ago once eth hit its current low of 167...which was very close to bitcoin's 2015 low of $166 (depending what exhange you look at). If a fib extension is used...its possible that $24,000 could be the next ATH for eth...in late 2021.
SebastianofMoon
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@kenzboard, Yeah, as insane as it sounds, 24k as a top for ETH could happen in 2021. BTC at around 200K, makes ETH at around 20-30k a realisitic target.