This will be a long post but I hope worth the time. I hope this encourages a lot of similar posts from the community and if it encourages a post from you on another currency please refer to this post so I can read what you wrote on the matter.
The big news to hit crypto was the recen paper out of the University of Texas at Austin "Is Bitcoin really Un-Tethered" (papers.ssrn.com...sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_i...) which evaluated the use of tether. Was the use of Tether demand driven (or pulled by the users, or was Tether "pushed" by its issuer? There were several hypothesis testing but long story short the researchers found that less than 1% of the hours are associated with 50% of bitcoins rise in price and 64% for other currencies (ethereum among them). Long story short Tether is used to prop up the price of crypto when it tanks and it is done at predictable resistance levels. Please review page 33 for the full conclusion (it takes up my word count to post it here).
You can see that I separated the volume and price charts to more easily show the most recent peak in ETH USD volume. Many of the pumps in price straddle the hour mark so the 2h time frame is used to control for that. We can see that the volume event that recently propped up the price of ETHUSD was the 4th highest volume event for the year and the largest green candle volume event of the year so far. That signals quite a bit of conviction/commitment to establishing a floor and the paper's conclusion suggest that the floor will be strong (and in my opinion most likely actively defended). Perhaps very crucially this spike in ethusd ESTABLISHED A CLEARLY HIGHER LOW than our low in April. This is important because the lows for BTCUSD are higher lows, but marginally so. THis is why I think ETHUSD will get more gains than BTCUSD and will be a "chosen child".
I have NOT done a systemic view of every exchange and ETH trading pair but since Bitfinex is the exchange of interest I decided to see if anything was salient and boy, did I find something.
You will also see on this both preceding charts an anomaly on february 8th for ETHBTC. It seems that that for some unknown reason 85k ETH was sold for BTC and in the following hours 133K ETH was purchased with BTC. 133K ETH is a curious amount because that was pretty close to the 134K that was purchased for USD a few days ago on 6-14. If we are working within the realm of currency manipulation the first idea is they wanted to control the liquidity of either ETH or BTC and when the preceding trades for 85k occured a decisive response was necessary. Why is 133k an important number? That is beyond my knowledge at this point.
Below we have the ETHUSDT chart for Bitfinex, which is most closely related to the academic paper. Spike 1 and 2 seem to be clear attempts to test the ability to slow the descent in price of ethereum. Cluster 1 is probably a combination of manipulation and organic attempts to capitalize on a RSI bounce out of an oversold condition (I would know, I was one traders there). Spike 3 appears to be a clearly successful attempt to continue a uptrend and it was successful. We are in the midst of Spike 4 and it seems that once again there is an attempt to continue/create an uptrend.
I am running out of characters for this post but safe to say, manipulation aside, I want to make money. My kids need clothes and food and I need to pay the mortgage. Here is the 12 chart.
The first MACD cross bullish cross lead to over 100% price increase in ETHUSD. The second was over 20%. The pending third bullish cross would make me happy right now if it were anything between. All have us bouncing out of an oversold condition and both show the Stochastic RSI going straight up. As always, protect your gains and cut your losers and lets all make some money.
DYOR DYOR DYOR
The big news to hit crypto was the recen paper out of the University of Texas at Austin "Is Bitcoin really Un-Tethered" (papers.ssrn.com...sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_i...) which evaluated the use of tether. Was the use of Tether demand driven (or pulled by the users, or was Tether "pushed" by its issuer? There were several hypothesis testing but long story short the researchers found that less than 1% of the hours are associated with 50% of bitcoins rise in price and 64% for other currencies (ethereum among them). Long story short Tether is used to prop up the price of crypto when it tanks and it is done at predictable resistance levels. Please review page 33 for the full conclusion (it takes up my word count to post it here).
You can see that I separated the volume and price charts to more easily show the most recent peak in ETH USD volume. Many of the pumps in price straddle the hour mark so the 2h time frame is used to control for that. We can see that the volume event that recently propped up the price of ETHUSD was the 4th highest volume event for the year and the largest green candle volume event of the year so far. That signals quite a bit of conviction/commitment to establishing a floor and the paper's conclusion suggest that the floor will be strong (and in my opinion most likely actively defended). Perhaps very crucially this spike in ethusd ESTABLISHED A CLEARLY HIGHER LOW than our low in April. This is important because the lows for BTCUSD are higher lows, but marginally so. THis is why I think ETHUSD will get more gains than BTCUSD and will be a "chosen child".
I have NOT done a systemic view of every exchange and ETH trading pair but since Bitfinex is the exchange of interest I decided to see if anything was salient and boy, did I find something.
Below we have the ETHUSDT chart for Bitfinex, which is most closely related to the academic paper. Spike 1 and 2 seem to be clear attempts to test the ability to slow the descent in price of ethereum. Cluster 1 is probably a combination of manipulation and organic attempts to capitalize on a RSI bounce out of an oversold condition (I would know, I was one traders there). Spike 3 appears to be a clearly successful attempt to continue a uptrend and it was successful. We are in the midst of Spike 4 and it seems that once again there is an attempt to continue/create an uptrend.
I am running out of characters for this post but safe to say, manipulation aside, I want to make money. My kids need clothes and food and I need to pay the mortgage. Here is the 12 chart.
DYOR DYOR DYOR
Comment:
Another relatively high volume event out of nowhere further substantiates my idea that ETH is having its floor established. We can see stiff overhead resistance between 520-525. We are also seeing an upcoming Daily MACD bullish cross and if you are like me, you are hoping , for an almost doubling in price that happened last April, rather than the weak cross we had earlier this month. I think the MACD will at least end up looking like a "W". THe most optimistic scenario would be if the MACD repeats the behavior in the shaded area.
And I promise every Floridian that you will all be rich... because we're gonna print some more money! Why didn't anybody ever think of this before?
~Nathan Explosion
~Nathan Explosion