ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Large Scale Wave 2 ?

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
ETHUSD Update: Dramatic price movement always calls for evaluation of the big picture. The 136 low is dramatic and causing a great deal of discomfort (if you read the ETH forums on Reddit). Again I have to say this market is not as bearish as it feels. This is a zoomed out chart of this market since is pre 10 dollar levels.

Looking at this from an Elliot Wave perspective, the rally that took this market to the all time peak, can be a large scale Wave 1. Currently we are seeing a sharp retracement which fits within the Elliot Wave rule: Wave 2 does not go beyond 100% of Wave 1. Technically this market can go back to 6, and still be within the rule, so I understand the critics of this subjective reasoning, but the reason why I am pointing out the possibility of a large scale Wave 2 is because of the support zone that price is within at the moment.

160 is the .618 of the entire upward swing (Wave 1). Typically in a sharp Wave 2 correction, price will retrace into the .618 area of Wave 1. On this chart, this area is 160 to 94. It is a very wide zone and it is possible for price to touch 94, stabilize and reverse to begin a large scale Wave 3. This is very similar to what happened with BTC back in 2013 to 2015. In 2013 BTC reached 1000, (Wave 1) and eventually retraced back to the 200 area (Wave 2) and then went to 3000 this year (Wave 3). A large scale Wave 3 in ETH should take this market beyond it's all time high, but this can take 6 months to a year to play out in my opinion.

On the big picture, the key resistance that needs to be compromised in order to signal healthy large scale buying is the 240 area. This is the .382 of the entire bearish swing. Unless that resistance is taken out to the upside, this market more likely to continue lower toward the 94 level.

Within this .618 zone, anything can happen, especially with the UASF hype and overreaction. I expect price to stabilize within this zone, especially AFTER 8/1, and I will stay out of this market until then. I want to remind the less experienced traders and investors, to not worry about "missing out". People thought 160 was a great price to buy, and it went to the 130s. And price may still go as low as 94.

In summary, I am now neutral on ETH since the 160 support break. My intent is to catch the next large scale leg back up, but the market needs to let me know when that possibility is more reasonable to expect and right now, that is not the case. It is very possible for a large scale reversal pattern to appear, but there is nothing in site yet. I am going to sit back and let everyone else worry and stress over the UASF. Once that is out of the system, price will provide a much better idea of where it wants to go.

This evaluation is meant to provide a broad overview of this market and to offer perspective. Any comments or questions are welcome.

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good post!
Completely agree with that. The reversal from 136 low to 160 was a big surprise for me but it makes more sense now :)
Thank you very much for this great insight.
MarcPMarkets salmanijaz
@salmanijaz, happy to help. It is very easy to be confused by smaller time frames.
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