in my last analysis I mentioned the key level around $120 as THE key level on the downside. I think it is still the key level. But now we have another on the upside: the trendline of the trend channel as you can see in the chart above. I think ETH will hit this target. The one million-dollar-question then is: will ETC then rise up, or do we see a final sell-off to $120 or even deeper to $80/$50?
Scenario 1 (red line – 5% chance)
ETH will rise up directly through the trend channel and through $358 to the sore point (please check my old analysis: “Ethereum – A matter of time…”, there I explained what I think about the sore point // please check link below). At the sore point, there will be a battle between the bulls and bears. If the bulls fail: we will see courses around $120 and much deeper.
Scenario 2 (blue line – 40% chance)
ETH will hit the trend channel and goes down to the region between $180 and $170 (this might be a wave 2) and turns there up to sore point. The problem here is, that the movement since hitting $167 looks corrective, not impulsive! Nevertheless, there is a 40% chance that we have seen to bottom already ($167). Why? Because the count down to $167 looks completed yet.
Scenario 3 (green line – 50% chance)
ETH will hit the trend channel and goes down to the region between $120 and $80. Exactly what I am preferring since my analysis which I mentioned above. We are still good to go down for a final sell-off!
Scenario 4 (red line – 5% chance)
ETH crashes down below $120 and $80 to end the correction started at all-time-high at maybe $50 or deeper in hell.
Be patient, there is only one last mile to go!
Take care, tgo
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Hello everyone, maybe ETH is forming a triangle. If so, there are three possibilities: 1. Hit trend channel and going up (10% chance) 2. Hit trend channel and completing triangle --> down to $170/$180 (40% chance) 3. Hit trend channel and completing triangle --> down to $120/$80 (50% chance) We will see... Take care, tgo
Very nice. I think you are spot on. The $167 level does look corrective. I don't think it's going to break out there. I will be watching closely for a $80 - $100 breakout.
HK-Capital-Management
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@GaiaDaughter,
Thank you very much! I appreciate that!