ETH Triangle bBeak Out, Fake or Long Term

BITMEX:ETHUSD   ETHUSD Perpetual Futures Contract
I started with the ETH' uptrend a few months ago and it first i was drawing an upwards channel from the Dec low and changed it to this triangle after we got rejection at the 160ish again in Feb. So after seeing it fail to reach the high of the channel a triangle was making more sense. Through out Feb and March we could see it was finding support around the 130. But when zooming in a bit more, at first sight it did not look that great. I talked about this in my last 2 ETH' analysis. That it looked weak and a bit bearish , but there were a few hidden bullish signs as well. These things are not easy to trade on but they are signs that never should be ignored. Actually the same thing was going on with my Bitcoin' analysis:

Now something else that keeps bugging me a bit. When looking back at previous drops, as we can see on the right and the chart here below. The other 2 similar moments, the whole world could see those up trend lines . But those times, it was almost impossible to short it, since those dumps happened in seconds/minutes. Now what makes me doubt is, how come this time everyone gets the perfect chance to short it here? Maybe a reason is because the OI is this high, because that also means a lot of people have positions running, so certain levels will be defended. Something we have seen a lot past weeks actually.

That channel was a good help in the previous analysis with that small triangle inside of it giving an entry that never was in danger since. You can call that a little bit of luck as well, because after it broke that triangle, it never looked back and simply kept on moving up.

Since Bitcoin' took the market by surprise with that big short squeeze, ETH' had a slow start but eventually it broke the triangle on the left as well, with great conviction and volume along with, as it should be. So at the moment, no reason to think that the bear trend will continue again. Past days it dropped quite a bit from the high, a little bit faster than a bull would want to see. As you might know, i mentioned it a few times before, corrections are usually violent and fast during a big uptrend. So nothing strange on that part as well. In theory this pull back of ETH' should stay above the 160ish, but i think it can even go towards the 155 and with a wick maybe even towards the 150. But really no more than that. I am giving it more room, because in crypto we tend to see shake pull back breaking supports but eventually still continuing the uptrend. As we can see in these examples, that also show, no need to catch any wick, usually enough time to get in without catching a falling knife.

Short term, as mentioned in my BTC' analysis, i think the market will go sideways this weekend, making an ABC correction. So maybe a bit lower, towards 161/162 and than up towards 169/173 and than one more drop in the 150/160 zone. Can't say i am very sure about this ABC , but it's my short term view for ETH now and don't have anything else that would make more sense. Maybe the wedge on the right is a plan B.

Previous analysis:
Comment: New Alt market cap analysis:

Comment: New Bitcoin analysis:


Botje, you are considered one of top traders here.

We should be long on ETH with reason since when Bitcoin surpassed 4000$ mark, we've seen ETH being worh 147$ .

When bitcoin crossed that mark making 4250$ , causing ETH to spike up to 167$.

We are experiencing now pretty much stable Bitcoin, it could retest some lows, but firmly holding over EMA200 and overall fractal outlook.

Reason why ETH did not uptrended yes and made 200$ + price (225-229 range to be precise) is because of ETH consolidation in the meantime.

Same will happend with XRP because it's still consolidating.

Technical separation and USD denomination are two different things.

Traders should be long on Bitcoin and pick right picks because when Bitcoin uptrend 10% over $ and your alt gains in the same time 30% gives = 43% nominal USD gain.

In order to determinate direction, trader should understand mid/macro overview, so he could anticipate the direction.

There are no such things as two sided directions and expressions which some trader use " we let the market decide".

There is no such thing.

People should know their "entries and exits before even join"

And that's a fact.

When speaking on ETH, we should be long and long only.

If you sank 20$ on eth (as fell 180-160) so be it, but overall outlook on it is certainly as bullish as XRP's.

There are better options than ETH, since uptrended 30% from bottom initialy (was worth 88$) on B 3156$ Binance.

Stratis, Zec, Btg, Xmr, BQX, GNT.

You are welcome.

Regards and thank you for your efforts.

Happy trading @botje11
+4 Reply
botje11 milanjelic
@milanjelic, I agree partially with you. Me personally, i don't have an FA view on crypto, i try to determine it through TA. Also don't have the time for it but also don't trust any info out there. I got fooled during the 6K consolidation because many many people were telling me and showing me so called proof that OTC trading was very high and was increasing extremely even. Only to learn afterwards, that it was mostly bullshit. Next to that, so many other smaller issues that are false or partially true.

The part that i agree with you, that if you are a real long term believer, one should not look at short term movement. Why do i say partially, is because now it's easier to say to just hold on, since we have a decent chance the low has been set. But many analysts were preaching half year ago to simply HODL as well. Only to see your money shrink 50/80%.

But as i said, i try to determine it through TA. Since the Dec rally, i gave things a decent chance to see a long term low. Even more when the 100 was looking like a solid support of wave 2. I remember how convinced you were about the rally, so well done btw :)

+2 Reply
@botje11 what do you think of a posible golden cross for eth.It will match your upwards movement idea

This is such a great analysis botje i could read it again and again its so objective.
Really thank yiu for this update on eth :)
botje11 Protoneus
@Protoneus, Your welcome :)
just amazing
botje11 lvg3g
@lvg3g, :)
Thank you!
botje11 sukovsky
@sukovsky, Your welcome :)
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