I wanted to take some time after this last night to learn what was happening with ETHUSD. It was an awful first quarter, but last night was the first time RSI hit an extreme. The impulse down was nearly equal to the prior two, but I expect the RSI to trigger new long volume, which will turn the latest bar into a bullish hammer. Together, these become self-reinforcing and start enough momentum to demonstrate the first truly bullish impulse wave. After impulse (1), retrace (2), and impulse (3), we'll have the first truly bullish signal of the year. Where retrace (4) and impulse (5) go are difficult to project--balanced arguments for a fast or quick recovery can be made.
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Just came back to check and I'm glad to see that things are shaping up well!
After the initial post this morning, ETH hit a low of day just a few bucks below my target at $450, and has since climbed back up to $533. Just a couple more percent and well have that hammer. What a day!
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EOD; not quite a perfect hammer, but it was there +/- 1 hr of EOD. I'll call this success so far. Next step, the first impulse of a bullish turnaround. Will give it 5 more days to form.
What support horizontals are you using for this, would you not want to wait for the formation of a possible bullish divergence under 30% RSI?
Elowind
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@PeakAscent, you raise a good point. It's possible that this trend could continue, and even if the RSI pulls back, we could even witness a case of negative divergence. As for the horizontals, there's nothing special about them other than approximations from historic periods of support that I think will return. Appreciate the comment, it gave me new angle of consideration.
We'll see how things turn out; I had to admit in the chart it was a bit early of evidence, I'm watching today's candle closely to see if it does come back to form a hammer with a long wick; a close above $550 would be nice to see.
PeakAscent
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@LionelTheLegend, I'm watching a large falling wedge on BTC and a similar one on ETH/BTC
And then there's the G20 tomorrow which TA may not be able to account for! :)