And more or less, it's why the bulls have not recovered much ground.
Price manipulators are being VERY careful, as the Feds are watching...
but they will make a move sooner or later
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Currently the price is going in and out of the Hyo cloud....
this slows down movement to a snail's pace.
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Structure being formed now in Bitcoins and ETHER..
have some similarity to June 11 - 13th
It then resumed the fall downward.. and that MIGHT be what is coming
However, that ran for two days... can't say if we have another 36 hours of this until the next fall...
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We are STILL in the Hyo cloud.
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We now have some GOOD news finally..
Mt Gox will NOT be dumping any coins in 2018. The courts upheld an order to return coins directly to creditors. The process still has to play out in 2019. THIS IS GOOD because the fears over Mt Gox have been removed for now.
Will this stop the drop? NO
But it might have stopped the drop coming from going even deeper.
The Mt Gox news is highly positive and removes a lot of FUD.
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As predicted, we are NOT hovering not far above the next Bitcoins support trend line.. which is roughly 5600.
I am just shaking my head a doomsayers who are still pumping the idea that we are falling anywhere below 5500. All the top Pros in the market (worldwide and NOT on Tradingview) have been targeting this price as bottom, including Willy Woo, who called this price three months ago and has NOT budged on this call.
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We hit almost right on top of where I predicted.
Of course, we had a bounce up. One member who follows me also stated they traded on my forecasting and MADE MONEY. This REALLY makes me happy!
I don't think we are going up. My hunch is we need to re-test a lower support area.. kind of like poking a stick in the bull pen...
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How many of you visited TA rooms/ideas where the author said...
- Wykoff - spring has started, we are going up - TA - bottom was hit, we are going up - TA - the rise to the moon is starting - TA - offered no alternative scenarios - TA - have huge followings, but got it wrong
Once you realize that NO SINGLE METHOD is guaranteed to forecast properly, then you will start paying attention to important fundamentals.. like..
- Market VOLUME. Next to price, volume is a HUGE indicator - The recent news with Mt Gox NOT being about to sell off coin for now - The report put out by CME: futures expiration date is preceded by a ten day drop.. and six days AFTER expiration, a rise (exp this month is June 29)
No single method of forecasting works all the time. This is why I use many factors, visit many TA rooms and then let my 'market sense' lend my own bias to who got it right and who got it wrong in their forecasting.
So far, I am right.. and my track record is great (and I have been wrong short term before, just as anyone else.. though only 25% of the time) I don't always trade my own forecasts.. my secret is that I trade what I see on the five minute chart... and I take into account all the general trends over the past 24 hours. GOOD tech analysis is critical for entering the market.. and the longer term forecasts will not do much good for that decision.
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Remember .. I am a DAY TRADER. My strategy is daily.
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If any of you are liquid at this moment.. you might consider getting ready..
- log in to your account and keep logged in - watch for a fall to 5800 Bitcoins - ETH watch for a fall to 425 ETH
there might be a big enough bounce there to make a small trade HOWEVER.. I expect us to fall further
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Okay that fall I was talking about just happened. Notice that Wykoff chart that someone posted in below was DEAD wrong! How many people followed that author?
Sorry I knew about this over an hour ago.. a bit late posting it...
Summary....
In the summer 2017, about 200+ new crypto hedge funds were formed. As of July 2018, guess how many are at the end of their 1 year lockup? The investors also know they are down 50%. Let's NOT be blind... forced selling en masse is coming our way, folks.
This news is also a support trend line smasher. News like this can artificially push prices down. At this moment, I suspect FUD is accelerating a drop that was coming anyway.
Today, I was seriously thinking of buying ETHER at 425.. because I was expecting a repeat bounce from June 24.
However, I am now in doubt. As that I follow the rule of 20/80.. I have to be 80% sure of my decision to pull that trigger. And I am NOT sure, so I am not pulling it at that price.
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It's not boring out there...
the price is dropping.
If you look at the chart above.. it's same damn chart I would still draw today and the price range for bottom is STILL the same.
I am relieved I was NOT one of those TA authors spouting all the JUNK about moon shots and fast recoveries or new bull rallies.
My forecasts are not always 'encouraging' but at least it is accurate most of the time.
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At this moment, Bitcoins is stuck in a tight range
any movement above 6400 is an indicator we might have a bullish rise
if the price falls a bit..
6280 and 6180 are your first STOPS
and stops are stops.. they are not guaranteed reversals
anything below 6000 is a revisit to the lowest lows of 2018
I see us going there, sooner rather than later.. but don't BET on my analysis..
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Miami July 1 at 11:34 EST
BItcoins at 6320 and starting to drop. ETHER is at 447.
Other TA I am visiting is mixed. The TA I agree with is a drop that will start with a retreat to 6280, then 6180 and then most likely break 6000 to settle below 5750.
ETHER in the worst case, might stop the fall at 392
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We just had a small short squeeze. This made the Bitcoins price jump to near 6600.
I did read a TA author's work who mentioned a chance of a short squeeze vs a drop and I did not publish that news.
Amazing enough, the price did rise.
It means several things.
For starters, it gives bulls a jump on a rally. BUT ONLY If the bulls have enough volume for a rally.
We were exiting a wedge that had equal chance of going up or down. Did a whale produce this fast rise? Perhaps? Is it a fake bull run designed as a one last bull trap?
I am still not convinced. Be cautious on your trading.
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One of my most trusted TA charters feels ETHER will slide down a bit.
He pronounced a BUY zone between 458 and 446.
If you are super bearish, you may want to hold back from buying.
If you believe that we are SHORT TERM rising... again short term.. then buying in this zone might be a nice way to make a fast trade profit.
I don't have any solid TA that makes sense to me on actual Bitcoins prices just yet.
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To recap that...
If you believe we are going to dip a little and rise big again, the ETHER buy zone is 458 to 446.
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Bitcoin Report..
We are in an ascending wedge on the short term chart.
Usually, this means you break out DOWNWARD.
Not guaranteed, but usually the case.
This does NOT mean crash and burn, just short term downward possibility.
My apologies to anyone who feels different... just reporting TA and not manipulation theory.
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Also the Dynamic Forecaster for Bitcoin is pointing down.
The shape of this chart is always changing, so from the time I wrote this to the time you look at it, things will have changed.
Amazing how such and old chart is still useful.. ::scratching head in wonder::
My favorite top author feels ETHER Is going to break down to 417 and then fall to 369 and 343 and then bounce up a bit and waddle around.
I have not seen him publish the equivalent for Bitcoins, but it is easy to imagine what that would look like for Bitcoins. (I watch both prices at the same time on a separate screen, following the Kraken exchange.
I am counting on his forecast to be accurate. The real question is WHEN..
@TradeClass , Thank you bringing out the conclusions. I found yours is the one and only location in TV for the conclusions. No need to visit many TAs. You are working for us, we admire your dedicated work. Thanks you.
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@raaajesh, I got conclusions from all over. Some are my own, some are not. Not every TA author stays in this habit. I guess they get bored. I have to look hard and eventually I find what I am seeking. Other times I just know where the market is going and its no effort at all.
hi!
I'm kinda indecisive on BTC now, but alts (i.e. Iota) have been on an easier path to track. I'm more bullish there, look like it's setting up for a breakout. For BTC it's all gonna be about that 6250-6300 level.
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@lady_luck, a descending wedge often breaks upward. But that does NOT always mean a bullish run. You can get a false break upward and then it crashes.
I am waiting for the big fall to 5700 or lower.
Market fundamentals just do NOT support a price rise.
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@lady_luck, I added an AGREE to the chart because it is nice work AND EASY to follow.
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@TradeClass, thank you and I agree about the descending wedge. It's a fair point.
This one was made of two TL on the upper side :
1) the dotted resistance TL from the top at about 2.5
2) the bottom support of the descending trend chanel
(Number 2) broke out with the last move to the downside and then met both the historical rising support, and the horizontal support of the previous bottom).
Price has since came back inside the channel, which is usually followed by a retest of the upper band, minimal target there would be at 1.40.
This also tell me that yes, fake breakout are happening all over, and yes, when price broke out of the wedge to the upside, this could be the real fake move.
But so far money flow and OBV are telling otherwise.
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Hi,
Saw in botje post, you looking for idea with good argument.
From TA perspective : we broke out of ending diagonal down, we have 5 wave down, wave 3 extended to 2.6 of wave 1, a triangle in wave 4, no overlap, no correction above 0.618. Current price as retested the descending trendline as support, and that was at fib 0.236 of our move up. Extension of which are matching with fib's from the correction.
Monthly pivot way up there near 0.236.
RSI and MACD both have divergence since the bottom of wave 3, which will confirm once above the black line.
We had a swing failure at the bottom and are still near the demand zone.
From a psychology standpoint : most alts have similar pattern, lost 30% this week, 60% this month, 80-90% past 6 month. Most of the alt born after january are in the red with day 1 as their highest high and only down from there.
This still represent 58% of the market with btc rising to 42%. Those long big red candle are made for panic. If this is any kind of accumulation market (in fact redistribution i should say), it is focus on alt.
From an historical perspective : i don't remember any altcoin value being divided by more than 25x since their ATH (that was ltc 2014). While btc 4-5x (if we except 2011). And we are very close to those number
From a "manipulation" perspective : i think there is a relation between the rise of ICO's, stucked early investor, BTC dominance doomed to go down and early on crypto rich who still own most of the top 10 coin but could be threaten by the switch and the rise of utility tokens. I think this correction has a lot to do with those factors and that the result is pretty much there.
For any other market or forex, those number are astronomic, sure it could go down more (even a lot more), but looking for the perfect bottom has never served me well in crypto.
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@lady_luck, that's NOT what I asked for. I am completely confused by what you just explained. Sorry.
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@TradeClass, Awe my bad. I read that "What do YOU THINK, people. I would like to hear SOLID reasons over charts" but i must have misunderstood.
Either way, don't worry about it if doesn't make sens. Good luck :)