ETHUSD - Elliott Wave Analysis - Revised Count: Boo Hoo Wave (2)

KRAKEN:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
With ETH not responding to the recent short term price action in other AltCoins and BTC , I went in search of reason(s) why. Ultimately this lead me to a comprehensive data source with all of ETH's price history. This then led to a full revision of the wave count for ETH. Here's the bad news, The recent high near 400 marked the top of a 5 wave structure completing wave (1). That means ETH has entered wave (2). Boo hoo, a terrible (2).

It appears that wave A of (2) may have completed with the retrace of 61.8% of the overall gain since ETH began trading. The wave B of (2) bounce is struggling to gain traction, will likely be minimal, and will take time. How much time is anyone's guess. All that is in prelude to wave C of (2), which could take ETH lower still, potentially to 100 area (or lower), if the final lower will reach to the 78.6% retracement level.

Exit the majority of any positions during this bounce, or seek to find a pair trading against ETH, or if you've got real guts and can do the due diligence and required research, exchange your ETH for a newly issued token and gamble on an ICO . Wait until sentiment has reached the complete loss of faith in ETH, and it is given up for dead. That is when like a phoenix, it will arise from the ashes.
Comment: Nearer term: Look for an exit.

Comment: In the wake of BTC deciding to no longer hang out in the high 2800 to low 2900 range, and since ETH failed to significantly rally when BTC went on its sprint a few days ago, I have to reassess the "lofty" target originally posted for ETH near 270. Relative weakness to the upside will bring on greater weakness to the downside as BTC returns to the Wave A lows in my analysis for it as Wave C plays out.

Add to this today's statements from the SEC that new ICO token issuance may be subject to SEC registration requirements (ruling based on the DAO case). . While many ICOs were already precluding US citizens from participating from in the token sales on concerns that the SEC would do what it has now done, this will have an impact on ETH demand, that would otherwise potentially been present. There are plenty of opinion pieces around to read, few if any are bullish in regard to what this means for ICOs, and by extension, this also applied then to ETH.

So as I ponder these drivers, and think about future events, as ETH continues its Wave C of 2, I look at that vast expanse of space below and to the right of ETH's current location, the one thing that attracts my forward seeing eye, is the divider between the grey netherworld, and the bottom of the deep blue sea... Here is where the treasure chest of low prices lays, deep under frothy windblown whitecaps that the good ship ETH used to sail upon.

Boo hoo, terrible Wave 2.

Comment: Wave B count. Counter trend corrections are messy.
No, it is not all one big easy to explain triangle.

Comment: The beginnings of Wave C.

How low will it go? How fast will it get there? No one knows.

Wave C of (2) should be grinding and relentless. It will not stop until it's done and the bullish mind set is vanquished. It cannot be bargained with, it will have no mercy and take no prisoners.

Where Wave A of (2) was volatile, large fast swings, a sprinter. Wave C of (2) will doggedly press on, relentlessly, a marathoner.

Comment: Correction and update to counts.

Comment: Time for an update on ETH. Wave (5) of 1 of 5 of C of II and the retracement of Wave 2 of 5 of C of II completed earlier today. You can see my projected paths in the chart above for Wave 1 of 5 of C of II as the steeply descending line from (4) e?, dropping off the bottom of the chart and the rebound for Wave 2 of 5 of C of II as the line rising up off the bottom in the lower right corner and exiting the lower right corner of the chart. How did it play out? Correct on levels, too fast on the drop, & too slow on the rebound.

Comment: Here are some couple close ups of Wave 2 of 5 of C of II while it was developing and I was trying to get a handle on the bounce, & count waves in real time (real hard!!)

Can I get in low enough? Nope missed my entry.

Sub-wave A has completed, and it's rolling over to B, maybe it'll drop far enough. Oh, no, oh crap, a triangle will suck up a lot of energy, how is this going to affect the remaining drop, best case?

Nope, killed the drop. Oh well, let's see how this plays out and lighten up on any ETH I want to get rid of before the plunge that 3 of C of II is surely going to bring. Got rid of some ETH at 3 of (5) of C, but again the triangle (flat-top) used up so much energy, plowing through sell walls, it stunted the rebound and my higher target orders (78.6% retracement) didn't liquidate.

Maybe this will just turnout to be A of 2 of 5 of C of II.
Comment: The more time that has lapsed since the 2 of 5 of C of (2) high, the more I am confident that it is complete, there will be no secondary dip, and no secondary higher high. which leads us to what comes next. Wave 3 of 5 of C of (2).

Given the target established at the macro level, Wave (1) ended, and Wave (2) has begum correcting Wave (1), and wave 2's normally correct the vast majority of the wave 1 gain, I set a target at the 78.6% Fibonacci level. Since the relief rally bounce, wave 1 of 5 of C of (2) consumed 53-54 points of the anticipated decline. Additionally, since wave 1's and wave 5's tend toward equality in length, we can expect wave 5 of 5 of C of (2) to also be 53-54 point. Wave 2 was a zig-zag rise and modest in height at 61.8%, so wave 4 should be shallow and a flat or triangle, but only be a 23.6% to 38.2% retracement. If we solve for Fibonacci extensions of wave 1 (53 * 1.618 = 86) and then taking the high price of wave 2 of 5 of C of (2), 210, and subtract the extension value, 210 - 85 = 124, the target for wave 3 of 5 of C of (2) is determined. I shaved a few points off for round.

Here's your target ETHians, got your deep sea diving gear on? This move should leave the last of the ETH Bulls sobbing in their pens. Boo Hoo! Terrible Wave (2).

Comment: As an analyst, it's never fun to have to reverse your calls and admit you were too quick to declare one phase was over and the next was ready to begin. Nonetheless, I must do that now and make amends. The correction and upward retracement of the decline to (A) to find (B), the completion of the retracement that will precede the eventual decline that is the main point of this idea thread, is still in process. From an earlier update on this Idea thread:

An update to the count and reiteration of the target. Time to target is unknown, but the general target level remains the same:

Comment: Maybe clarity will arrive soon. The first chart gives both cases, Bullish in Red with more detail, and Bearish in Blue. The second highlights the Bearish count.

Will the bull gore the bear? Or has the bear awoken from his short hibernation, and is it ready to feast on bull-tard meat by dragging the corpse to its lair and cave in the low triple digits or high double digits?

Comment: Still waiting for clarity.

Comment: I had just about given up. The tears were drying up and hope was returning. What an enormous Flat. Missed making a new high by that ------>| | <-------- much.

Boohoo Terrible 2...


I have counted last move from 180 with a lots of 1-2 waves, but it fits well
RogueDave ferradura
@ferradura, Nice counting! The embedded and wave extensions at the Subminuette, Micro, Submicro, and Miniscule levels is quite a challenge.
Elliott wave master i like this one
RogueDave HamadaMark
@HamadaMark, Thank you for your kind words. I'm not a master, still just a student learning to advance my application of the theory, and art.
+1 Reply
HamadaMark RogueDave
@RogueDave, u are welcome bro sure all we do same thing but from me i see good work and i like it so u get master :)
@RogueDave Where is your next price target? Thanks!
RogueDave view_trade
@view_trade, A general target level is in the lead graph. Double Digits. 78.6% retracement of the life time gains of ETH. (US$80 - US$90).
view_trade RogueDave
@RogueDave, Thanks! Sorry, I'm not familiar with EW Analysis and wasn't sure I understood your last few updates. If I'm understanding you correctly, this last pump is B in your lead graph?
RogueDave view_trade
@view_trade, Yes, the 2nd graph in tonight's update included a bigger current picture, the rebound to "B" (spike to A of B, a drop to B of B, and a bunch of bouncing around ending in a lateral triangle to conclude C of B). I wouldn't call it a pump, think of it as a relief rally.

Then the downward legs of "C" began. The descent to "C" will occur in 5 larger legs or waves. 3 down and 2 up. The downward waves (because it's a bear market) will be composed of 5 sub-waves, while the corrective waves will contain 3 sub-waves.

If you want to learn about Elliott Wave Analysis, an excellent introductory set of lessons can be found here:

view_trade RogueDave
@RogueDave, Thank you so much! I'll check it out!
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