Less than 1 week away from the August 1st hard fork in BTC . As we get closer to that date, I believe will taper off even further. Keep in mind the bigger picture is still in terms of price structure, and price has to break below 163, and back into the 130s in order to render that structure void.
One of my favorite reversal formations appeared: The at 190. This is a perfect example of what I like to see in order to take a position. What prevents me from doing so is this formation did not appear within my price range of 183 to 163, AND I am not taking any new positions until 8/1 is out of the way. (If we were not dealing with this BTC drama, this would have been a buy signal for me). Double bottoms within a broader environment indicate strength and price stability, and offer great reference points to measure risk from.
Since the break of the recent triangle, there are 2 minor resistance levels to consider. These are likely to break in my opinion because they are relevant to the swing coming out of the triangle which is counter trend in light of the broader structure. 205 which is the .382 of the bear swing, and the 215 to 221 which is relative to the .618 of the bear swing. Also the 212 area a previous major support, may now act as a resistance (inversion). A break of these levels, especially the 221 area, will signify that buyers are in control. Keep an eye on these moving forward because they can also present day trade opportunities if shorting this market is within your trading plan.
Since the held, the small upswing which is currently in play offers a minor support at 195 which is the .618 of the up leg. For those interested in getting a lower risk entry on the long side, this would be a good price, using 188 as a stop.
In summary, the appearance of the at 190 shows that the recent break is nothing to be excited about. Unless a
formation like this appears within the boundaries of my plan, I prefer to stay out, especially with 8/1 less than a week away. Keep in mind if price breaks below the 190 support, we can see the 183 to 163 zone and that is where I am more interested in taking risk.
Comments and questions welcome.