ETHUSD Update: Small retrace off of yesterday's high, with a development of a minor support zone within the 210 to 215 area. Volume is still very low which may have something to do with the seasonality of financial markets in general. Volume needs to pick up in order for this trend to continue.
After trading multiple asset classes for years, I learned one thing: summer time trading in the U.S. is always slow whether you are in stocks, futures, even forex at times. These new markets may be feeling that effect as well even though the BTC drama is over. The reason for this seasonal pattern is simple: the entire world goes on vacation in August. Just look at the hotel prices in any of the Caribbean islands. It is peak season. And it's not just Americans driving that demand.
I would think by now volume would be back to normal and it's way below (33k? that's low). Keep in mind price can move in a low volume environment, but usually the moves are more random and lack follow through.
With that being said, I am still interested in buying. I am watching the 210 inverted support which now has a minor zone going up to 215. This zone is related to the .382 of the most recent upswing that was put in place yesterday. I want to see a price pattern reversal on a smaller time frame such as an hourly or 30 minute to get me into a long. Since volume is low, I will compensate for the additional randomness by only putting on 50% of my normal unit size. If I manage to get long my stop will be around 195 and my first target at 249.
If price falls through this minor support, the 200 to 185 support zone is my next area to watch for reversals and depending on the price action there, I can determine my risk at that time if a reversal pattern appears according to my trading plan.
In summary, based on structures put in place so far, this market is still strong and healthy, it just needs more volume. I am watching for price to retrace into two particular areas, the 215 to 210 and/or the 200 to 185 for possible long positions. If there are any surprises and price falls below 160, then my bullish evaluation is negated. Otherwise, be patient, strong markets offer plenty of opportunity.
Always appreciate your charts and perspective. Keep up the good work and thanks!
MarcPMarkets
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@enoch87, you're welcome. Glad you find it helpful.
vduchew
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Great job again! Did you ever make that explanation video you mentioned before? I'm curious how your determined the top and bottom of the last reversal range. Thanks in advance!
MarcPMarkets
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@vduchew, thank you. No, I am working on an entire course which introduces all the elements that I use to evaluate these markets. If you want, join my email list because I will be announcing the release soon. eepurl.com/cTRllP
machinelearnt
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Hi Marc, do you think we have seen reversal signals yet based on the 30 min- 1hr candles? I am relatively new to charts, but from what I can tell it looks like we do have reversal signal at this point. Great info as always, thanks!
MarcPMarkets
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@SkylerECU, reversal on the 30 min and 1 hour do not carry the same weight as the bullish signs on the 4 hour and above. Do not be confused by smaller time frames.
I trust in ETH, but the low volume of the market is sad. Peoples should see the potential of this coin, because lower price allow more coins and more profit, than BTC.
I agree the price will break 240, but this week? I dont know.
The next support is around 210 (.618 fibo), ok. But Marc, do u think the market have power for a 230 again, or better, breaking 240...this week?
And thx for the analysis.
MarcPMarkets
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@ItaloPires, the price structure is in place to break above 240 but eh volume is not. We need a catalyst to jump start this market. I commented on this in the evaluation that I just published.
ItaloPires
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@MarcPMarkets, thank u. I just see now your new evaluation.