botje11

ETH in Danger Zone, H&S and Triangle, Part 3

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
Again another day has past without anything significant happening. Again a small drop and pump with a lot more sideways action. As long as ETH' stays inside that triangle, the bears will be clearly in favor. The low volume is in favor of the bears and that it is so close to the neckline of the H&S .

The problem is, Bitcoin' has a big support zone below it, even up to 3300/250. But if Bitcoin' makes a drop below 3500/450, the neckline of ETH' will probably break and it will likely continue to drop to the Dec low. But i don't see that happening if Bitcoin' stays above the 3200. So in other words, if the neckline of ETH' breaks with very high volume , it would mean the whole market will crash again coming week. So for Bitcoin if would also mean it will prob break the 3000 and who knows how ugly things will get if the 3200/3000 breaks.

I will remain hesitant, until i see a big volume candle in or above that red zone. ETH' also has been very leading of the market the past month or 2, so things just looking very bad at the moment. Now even if we do move up, it is also just as important that we see a big buy volume candle. As we can see in the yellow highlighted area, the green candle is still small. It was the day that Bitcoin' made that bear trap move i mentioned. But now we can see the volume that day was simply not enough to make another push up. So we need more than that. The first red zone on the right is the first resistance the bulls need to break. Getting above the second one could mean the current bear trend might be over. For the bears, that blue zone seems to be a support level as well inside the neckline zone. So that level would also be a first indication of more bearish movement.



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Previous analysis:
Comment: Since my post it went slowly up and eventually made a small short squeeze which got rejected again from that resistance. But the move was prob just a short squeeze again. Now it looks like it is above a small support now. you can see a smaller triangle i have drawn inside the big yellow one. If it stays above the green (breakout zone), there could be another attempt to move up. If that green breaks, it could be one of those fake breakouts again and we slowly go towards the lows again with a big chance it will repeat all over again.

Comment: Update analysis ETH:

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Excellent call @botje11 , you nailed this one!
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@botje11 So it looks like ETH is on last support at the moment, also volume dropping. So it's looks like we are going to drop right?
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Nice one. This is mines

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You have the support exactly where I think we will see a bounce. We got the long alert and are in this trade to ride it up! Best of luck man :)
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Take a look at my latest BitMEX (LTHC19) trade... What's your take?

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@alanmasters, Hey man, I saw this and honestly wanted to give my perspective. The stop loss is at a higher low formation which I know you know but we're taking this on a little differently with a stop loss lower and letting the price fluctuate a little more. Would love your feedback and thoughts as well. Best of luck to you AlanMasters!
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@botje11 you mentioned ETH leading the market recently, but haven't all up/downtrends been led by BTC, as usual? maybe the *manipulators* are doing some pumping & dumping with ETH now, but will that really make everything else move? and if that happens, it will be regardless of any TA signals. it will happen when they dump a big market order. maybe they'll short it first.

you're showing a bearish wedge, and in the larger picture that's true. but if you look in the pic on the right, at those 2 lows that dip way below the 115-117 support, those make it look more like a normal triangle. eth has already "crashed" and recovered within 1 candle a few times. looks like the bulls showing a bit of confidence. it could easily dump now, but it would be if the manipulators decide to do it. it doesn't look like eth will be dragging the whole market 1 way or another like BTC always does. ETH will need better fundamentals, more real-world adoption, and more fiat ramps before that happens.
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botje11 dma90210
@dma90210, Maybe i should have said it in a different way. I actually mean, that ETH has been showing signs for the direction sooner than BTC. So BTC is still the King of course since it got the most volume and therefore, got the most prof money.

It's not a wedge i am showing, but simply a triangle. With triangles it can always go both ways, but there are/were several factors in favor of the bears. Those wicks are very confusing in crypto, because of the extreme manipulation on the short time frame (stopping out leveraged traders). That is the whole problem, it could get dumped so easily by certain people, it only needs a few million $$ to make the market cap drop 1 billion. That's actually very sick!
The things i mentioned in the analysis, it's not what my gut is telling me, it's a pure objective view. After my post it also broke up and at the moment still above the triangle, but still no real confirmation
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Nice!
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