Again another day has past without anything significant happening. Again a small drop and pump with a lot more sideways action. As long as ETH' stays inside that triangle, the bears will be clearly in favor. The low volume is in favor of the bears and that it is so close to the neckline of the H&S.
The problem is, Bitcoin' has a big support zone below it, even up to 3300/250. But if Bitcoin' makes a drop below 3500/450, the neckline of ETH' will probably break and it will likely continue to drop to the Dec low. But i don't see that happening if Bitcoin' stays above the 3200. So in other words, if the neckline of ETH' breaks with very high volume, it would mean the whole market will crash again coming week. So for Bitcoin if would also mean it will prob break the 3000 and who knows how ugly things will get if the 3200/3000 breaks.
I will remain hesitant, until i see a big volume candle in or above that red zone. ETH' also has been very leading of the market the past month or 2, so things just looking very bad at the moment. Now even if we do move up, it is also just as important that we see a big buy volume candle. As we can see in the yellow highlighted area, the green candle is still small. It was the day that Bitcoin' made that bear trap move i mentioned. But now we can see the volume that day was simply not enough to make another push up. So we need more than that. The first red zone on the right is the first resistance the bulls need to break. Getting above the second one could mean the current bear trend might be over. For the bears, that blue zone seems to be a support level as well inside the neckline zone. So that level would also be a first indication of more bearish movement.
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Since my post it went slowly up and eventually made a small short squeeze which got rejected again from that resistance. But the move was prob just a short squeeze again. Now it looks like it is above a small support now. you can see a smaller triangle i have drawn inside the big yellow one. If it stays above the green (breakout zone), there could be another attempt to move up. If that green breaks, it could be one of those fake breakouts again and we slowly go towards the lows again with a big chance it will repeat all over again.
Some people making ether appear weak for time being on purpose. I opened 70% ether position @ 114 couple days ago. As long as bitcoin is stable no huge drop, ether will strike out of blue. Ether bulls literally taking people out off the train before it gets back up to $160-$200 range.Ether chart may appear ugly but indicates extremely bullish divergence.
ps. Think about this!If you are whale how can you make people sell you cheap ether? (maybe creating messy chart does help ;)
I would say best time to buy ether is now than ever....
botje11
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@SpaceCatZ, True, i agree with what your saying. The same was going on around the 3200 with BTC. For me it's not easy to just tell my gut feeling instead of objective TA. If i would simply be trading myself, i would have a long at these levels as well with a wide stop and simply wait. Still doesn't make sense that after the rally we had with high volume in Dec, that the market is completely dead again. That does suggest the market is likely to turn up. But normal TA says more likely down
dma90210
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@botje11 you mentioned ETH leading the market recently, but haven't all up/downtrends been led by BTC, as usual? maybe the *manipulators* are doing some pumping & dumping with ETH now, but will that really make everything else move? and if that happens, it will be regardless of any TA signals. it will happen when they dump a big market order. maybe they'll short it first.
you're showing a bearish wedge, and in the larger picture that's true. but if you look in the pic on the right, at those 2 lows that dip way below the 115-117 support, those make it look more like a normal triangle. eth has already "crashed" and recovered within 1 candle a few times. looks like the bulls showing a bit of confidence. it could easily dump now, but it would be if the manipulators decide to do it. it doesn't look like eth will be dragging the whole market 1 way or another like BTC always does. ETH will need better fundamentals, more real-world adoption, and more fiat ramps before that happens.
botje11
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@dma90210, Maybe i should have said it in a different way. I actually mean, that ETH has been showing signs for the direction sooner than BTC. So BTC is still the King of course since it got the most volume and therefore, got the most prof money.
It's not a wedge i am showing, but simply a triangle. With triangles it can always go both ways, but there are/were several factors in favor of the bears. Those wicks are very confusing in crypto, because of the extreme manipulation on the short time frame (stopping out leveraged traders). That is the whole problem, it could get dumped so easily by certain people, it only needs a few million $$ to make the market cap drop 1 billion. That's actually very sick!
The things i mentioned in the analysis, it's not what my gut is telling me, it's a pure objective view. After my post it also broke up and at the moment still above the triangle, but still no real confirmation
ps. Think about this!If you are whale how can you make people sell you cheap ether? (maybe creating messy chart does help ;)
I would say best time to buy ether is now than ever....