There is a high probability the 50-day EMA crosses down the 200-day EMA between July 27th and July 30th. Price action would need to sky rocket into a 5-figured sum to avoid this outcome.
IF price action remains under the 200-day EMA at the time of the cross, Ethereum WILL be in a technical bear market. Look left, it is very clear what will happen.
I’m befuddled as to why so many Tradingview ideas are long Ethereum right now. There is clear evidence something nasty is about to happen. Which is:
1) The death cross.
2) Bearish hidden divergence. Price action makes lower highs as the oscillators make high highs. Hidden divergences can be often more powerful than regular divergence.
Take precautions, don't follow the herd.
WW
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Below it was mentioned on the last death cross price action rallied. This is true, I had noticed that. It is also notable at the time of the last death cross price action was the same as the life cross before it. With the coming death cross price action has almost appreciated 5000% since the bottom in April 2020. That's amazing.
Good TA requires looking left. Folks are naturally hesitant Ethereum could be entering a nasty bear market.
To help, I’ve counted previous death crosses. Every time the 50-day EMA crossed down the 200-day EMA. Going backwards in time with ‘1’ being the most recent:
1) April 2020, 2800% return.
2) September 2019, 40% correction
3) April 2018, 90% correction
4) November 2016, 50% correction
Perhaps ‘death crosses’ are the new life crosses, who knows. However if you offered me a bet with 1/4 odds, I would decline.
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Death cross and bear market idea now void?
Afraid not. To avoid the death cross price action needs to move significantly higher. Talking almost 10k. The bulls appear to be working on it.
What about the bear market?
If price action remains above the 200-day EMA, a bear market will be avoided. Unfortunately the trend remains one of lower highs. That first must be broken.
Price action must break above $2500 and stay there to void the whole idea.
A break below $1700, will be a warning to get out.
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A new candle will be printed on the 2-day chart (below) at the close of today (July 27th). Bulls, I don't wish to rain on yesterday's parade but watch this candle like a hawk. I see two things:
1) Price action rejecting the 2-day chart 50-day EMA (blue line) with significant resistance.
2) The candle itself, if price action should close today at $2160 a Gravestone DOJI candle WILL be printed.
Knowing that a 'death cross' is now almost impossible to avoid on the 1-day chart together with (1) and (2) above, the risk is all to clear.
Wait for confirmation.
Price action above $2500? Go long.
Price action closing @ $2160 + death cross on 1-day? Get out.
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A new record has been made today. Never before in Ethereum’s price action history has 12 daily green candles in a row been printed (assuming today also closes green). In the bull run of December 2017, 10 was the best - you know what happened after don’t you?!
The death cross has someone being avoided at this time. Very impressive, as if the handbrake was pulled.
So this idea is now void? No.
Below is the Ether / BTC chart, price is trading inside a descending triangle printing lower highs. Must wait for a breakout before trading, never never trade inside a formation. If there is one mistake I regret over the years, it’s guessing the breakout direction. Just don’t!
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Price action prints a death cross as price action continues to climb.
Is this a bear market? No. Not until price action falls below $2150. Watch this level closely in the days ahead.
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A 'great sell' alert just popped up with the breakout of RSI support. It is probable price action returns to the $2600 to test support on the 21-day EMA.
The bulls must hold this level to make the death cross irrelevant.
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PS: If price action does indeed correct from here that would be significant. A 'Lower high' would be printed. This could result in sideways price action for months.
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Is this idea over with? Not yet... A death cross was printed but then price action moved back up over the 200-day EMA, thereby invalidating the bear market condition.
The 2-week chart below prints a new candle on Monday. Watch it closely. The trend line resistance remains intact for the time being. If price action moves to $2900 by the time a new candle is printed, it will be a warning for much lower price action.
To avoid the above outcome, Ethereum needs to break above 4k, I'm hopeful that it will.
Trade closed manually
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Going to close this one for now as lower highs are now printing. A new higher high is needed, and only then will price action see massive gains when this occurs. Be patient.
Lux Algo now prints a buy signal on the daily chart, looking left it seems fairly reliable.
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Changed my mind. This trade is still open. 2-day chart and weekly charts has 'go away until another day' written all over it.
A 2nd Head and Shoulders pattern prints + confirmation and is a lower high from all time high! Yuck.
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Death cross on weekly chart prints.
First support $900
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Making good progress to first target. Do not assume it will hold, some consolidation will take place first, which should last some weeks.
a bear market means there is no volume and most have lost faith in the security asset. While your TA is not wrong it doesnt not match the fundamentals with EIP1559 and all of the funds going live starting this week.
You are also not addressing the market manipulation by whales like the Digital Currency Group/ Gray Scale.
Yes we might see a dip, but there is too much adoption for a bear market.
without_worries
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@Thetality, There can be plenty of volume in a bear market. Perhaps just not the right sort of volume :) We can't trade with emotion. Doing so is asking for trouble, especially after an asset has appreciated nearly 5000%.
I have a granny who lives north of the Arctic circle, no TV or broadband. On the telephone last week, "did you hear about EIP1559?" - I sold it all right then.
Well if you artic living Granny sells more than Grayscale, Charles Schwab, a massive collection of large scale individual investors, Facebook, Tesla, Space X and JP Morgan add to thier funds or asset sheets, and additionally offsets ETH becoming a deflationary asset via staking and smart contracts consuming ETH assets please let us all know. Lastly that she of sat the triple halving for miners.
Because she would also be the person overcoming supply shock hitting exchanges. I will line up media outlets for an interview.
This would also break the pattern of every bull run in the past 10 plus years having a dip/ retracement. This would also negate all stock-to-flow models and pi cycle top indicators.
without_worries
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@Thetality, We did have a pi-cycle top, no one was paying attention.
Thetality
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@without_worries, negative. All indicators say we have not topped out. THis is a dip/ retracement.
without_worries
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@Thetality, agreed top not yet in. Expecting 20k top. But first a dip to $400-1000.
Thetality
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@without_worries, DId your Arctic Granny come up with 400 to 1000? That math does not match any formula, previous pattern, or projection.
without_worries
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@Thetality, "That math does not match any formula, previous pattern, or projection."
You are also not addressing the market manipulation by whales like the Digital Currency Group/ Gray Scale.
Yes we might see a dip, but there is too much adoption for a bear market.