When things look obvious, that usually means everyone is thinking the same thing. In this case, short. If day trading, that's one thing, but if you are expecting a big win, that is a high risk idea in my opinion.
Earlier I wrote an article on S.C. which highlighted the broader structures of this market. The 544 to 464 (.618 of the recent swing relative to the 374 low) and the fact that price is still holding way above the 374 historical low. If this broader structure does not break below 374, it will then be establishing a broader higher low formation. This is a place to accumulate for a bigger picture move higher, not sell.
423 is the next reversal zone boundary that presents a high probability location for patterns. At S.C. we will be watching carefully for the opportunity to add to our inventory.
In summary, extreme sentiment is an opportunity that only a contrarian will recognize while the herd is busy following indicators that look backwards. Buying into this type of market goes beyond what you will see on a chart and has more to do with intangible concepts like best practices and crowd psychology. I liken this situation to the polar opposite of where this market was in January in terms of sentiment. The crowd was sure ETH was going to 2K in a matter of weeks and instead it went to 374. Now the market is fluctuating near lows but not making lower lows while is shrinking which is a not so obvious sign.
In situations like this, you do not want to be part of the crowd. Do not be distracted by hype or attention seekers and do not be limited by irrelevant lines on a chart. If you recognize the long term merit of these coins, then these low prices are an opportunity to invest. It is no different than buying name brand items that go on sale.
You are one of the few TA pros on here that does NOT treat market fundamentals as trash to be discarded.
I absolutely see us testing the ETH 423 support.. and I grateful to Marc for isolating that price.
Furthermore, there are many reasons why this support area may NOW be the coming bottom. My hunch is centered on the very positive news... that Mt. Gox dump machine... has been put on hold until 2019. Furthermore, there is a court motion to return Mt Gox assets to the creditors... in the form of COIN payment. Technically speaking, there is more likelihood the recipients will HODL. As the good news spreads, it will decrease market pessimism. This may also be enough to 'slow down' the market slide momentum... and prevent a drop to despondent doomsday predictions, such as Bitcoins falling to 3500, 4500 or 5000.
In fact, the Mt Gox NEW ruling may also increase recovery time from the bottom. Again, this is pure speculation, but my degree is in pyschology and I use a lot of this in my bias when doing TA.
I am including my chart below, because it is a different perspective on TA. It's a bit warped by my own ingredients of combined forecast methods, including manipulation theory. However, truth be told, during my short term trades (I am day trader of ETH) I would first visit Marc's TA before anyone else's... as he is probably the most talented and unbiased on Tradingview... and for day trading, traditional TA is the foremost took for successful profits.