In my previous idea on Ethereum I had the impression that Ethereum could beginn to move inside a channel, but I spotted also a possible falling wedge. This falling wedge is now materializing.
the previous idea
I feel quite confident on this idea for different reasons.
1) There is a break down of a major support resistance (black dashed line). This means that these levels are not sustainable for ethereum and it have to find is true value down. The true value of ethereum is written in the supports.
2) Ethereum broke down this monstrous Flag. From top of may till the Flag Ethereum lost 50% of its value. The break down of the flag could be associated with another 50% down, what bring Ethereum at around 250 dollars (target arbitrarily calculated from the top reached inside the flag at 500 dollars).
3) the support trend line of the wedge intersecate the strong support /demand zone in the next weeks.
What is next.
First weak support is 273 dollars (top of the first blue case. My ideal support is 252 dollars. Extreme support is 225 dollars (basis of the first blue box).
From there, retest of the resistance of the falling wedge. I will sell this resistance. Ethereum could then go to test the second blue case at 186.
I see this second target as possible for the reason that ethereum probably topped against bitcoin. This will be associated with a strong shift of money from ETH to BTC when BTC will start to push up again.
If you look at the chart against BTC
Ethereum just broke a very important trendline against BTC, what is a clear sign of weakness. The first important support against btc is within the first blue case. From this level Ethereum will have a recover against btc. Entering this level in the ETH/BTC pair, ETH will be probably be at the support trendline of the falling wedge in the USD pair and will bounce to the resistance of the falling wedge. Back to the USD pair
From the resistance of the Falling wedge Ethereum will commit again to USD. Ethereum will then find support inside the first blue case or in the bad scenario into the second one. This money will possibly sustain the growth of bitcoin an the return of the bull in the crypto market.
The exit of the wedge will be the opening of the new altcoin season and acceptance of the ETFs.
BIO
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I always find inspiration from the past. In this chart from Kraken we have still not clearly broken this support
the major trendline has been broken. MA are looking down. Objectively it doesn't look good.
Bitcoin is clearly fighting to stay above the support of the last run. Even if I see some short term upward movement, it still looks weak.
It's clear that we are on a crossroad. Even if the bearish view seems now the most logical we should not stay fixed on a single idea
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250 dollars... Now we have just to hope that the market won t crash
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250 dollars is a very strong support in my opinion. So I will stay in untill it does not break down.
In case 250 was not the right reversal target then the falling wedge idea is still valid on the linear graphs as nicely showed by a very good trader as steffro
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From BO level eth arrived just at 38% fibo.. very bearish
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Out of the channel with bullish harmonic. Wait for confirmation
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Still in the ascending channel. Great move at approach of the resistance . Now there is a strong downtrendline. Eth have to overcome this . Otherwise short
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Triangle structure break out
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If bitcoin does not sucks then we are ok!
Many coin inclusive bitcoin did not overcome major resistance. Situation is not of easy interpretation
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Bullis harmonics pattern inside a channel. ...
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The triangle that have to be broken is this one
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Wedge Formation broken on the wrong side and seems to offer resistance. If rejection of this trendline and Flag break down, then I see 176 Dollars as next strong support
Well if we see that price I think it will be game over for this market altogether. This will kill miners!! No miners = no currency. This will force price to zero and kill it completely! I don't see any signs of reversal here. Any thoughts?
CraigLancaster
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@aformby, Long term yes, but if its a short term bottom then i think we are ok.
Having said that the next gen hardware is just around the corner, so its only natrual that prices will drop as peeps can mine harder and faster.
FerdiHodler
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@aformby, i’m not a specialist on how does crypto work and maybe i will tell you a very dumb thing, but i don t care i tell you it anyway.
on high volume of transaction miners received ethereum, bitcoin and shitcoin at very high price. A lot of transaction is a lot of blocks to mine and a lot of blocks to mine means that miners have (or had) a pool full of coins.
Now on low volume of transaction they are mining less blocks for low rewards.
If you do a mean, they are still very happy and are dancing on the tables because they really love this job and in a couple of months when the price will surge back , people will fomoing again, transaction will grow again and they will do big cash again.
Moreover as anybody like me you and the holy pope can mine coins, this low price make unactractive for new actors to enter on this market. When volume will grow again, there will be less concurrence and they will become big cash again.
I find very interesting the economy behind mining. I will look to do a little bit more of research about this
Esmaeel
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@bionicol, number blocks being mined and the money miners make is independent of the number of transactions. just FYI :)