stevenslicer
Short

ETH/USD with Constantinople Taken in to Account

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
Can't wait to see how this plays out.

Reasons why I think these are the scenarios:

ETH/USD is in a clear cut bearish downtrend but there is three hard forks including the Constantinople upgrade of the Etherium blockchain.

Notes
  • ETH failed the break the trendline again and bulls look a little exhausted.
  • There is currently nothing to show in the TA there will be a breakout uptrend.
Constantinople
  • May cause a new level of support if it break the trend.
  • May cause more rapid sell-offs if there is a quick downtrend, some will have been buying for a while and take profit or panic sell.
  • May be a complete anticlimax, or the forks may even devalue and dilute Ethereum market cap
  • May cause amazing breakout against the trend as per the arrow above
Comment: Still watching, getting interesting, MACD & Histogram heading downwards.
Trade active: Short position at around $165 on the above bounce off the pink line - hit resistance & wicked above the line.

MACD & Histogram heading down, as is volume.

Looking at a bounce down by around $5-$10 before bulls have another go at breaking (if they have another go), 3 clear attempts so far.
Trade closed: target reached: Bounce down by $5 worked well, 25% leverage taking very good profits.

Ended up a clear cut shorting situation:
- MACD peaked - heading down
- Histogram peaked - heading down
- Volume steadily heading down
- Resistance at trendline
- No signs of support between $160-$166

We're still in a similar situation - looks bearish but I'm not getting greedy & closing the bulk of the position before re-evaluating.

Results here: https://twitter.com/StevenSlicer/status/...
Comment: This chart is still valid, correctly called the recent drop.
The recent run-up appears to be related to the coming Hard Fork. I have not really looked into how much faster the transaction rate will be, but what will interest me more is the framework. I have not read the white paper on it yet, and so far I am unclear how much it will differ from the current platform, from a developers perspective. I find your chart to be interesting with the trepidation that your downward trend line is only supported by one point making the trendline less intuitive. Well, this is not necessarily a bad thing, it becomes more of a point of reference than an actual indication of resistance. This, of course, is just my humble opinion. I respect everyone willing to display their work and back it with their written opinion. I look forward to your future charts!
https://ethereumworldnews.com/binance-confirms-support-for-the-january-ethereum-eth-constantinople-hard-fork/


Best,
Biff
Reply
stevenslicer biffbifford
@biffbifford, Hi Biff, thanks you for your comments. Zoom out to august - 4 (tentative 5 points) on a consistent downtrend for 5-6 months, zoom out further - consistent downtrend for a year.
Reply
biffbifford stevenslicer
@stevenslicer, Ah, I see now, my apologies for being a bit lazy! I wish you good fortune in 2019! We will make this a good year for sure!
Reply
stevenslicer biffbifford
@biffbifford, cheers to you too biff! Here's to 2019 :)
Reply
stevenslicer biffbifford
@biffbifford,

Press play on this - really good experience.
Reply
You are probobaly right. One of the all possible scenarios will play out.
Reply
stevenslicer jerry2000
@jerry2000, thanks & let's see!

I'm looking forward to watching this over the next two weeks.

Note: There's not much recent support until $118-120 though, which (if it holds) could become very good support,

Recently broke resistance at $120 twice then bounced off that once (resistance becoming support).
Reply
stevenslicer jerry2000
@jerry2000, have a look at this now - interesting!
Reply
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