ETH/USD has been in the process of consolidating down here for a substantial amount of time. In my previous update, I stated that most of the minor downtrend lines had been broken, but we are potentially forming a downward continuation pattern right now since we haven't broken to the upside. See the 2 blue circles highlighted comparisons. As much as I think it's going to move to 500 by the end of September, it's key we don't let our emotions get in the way and look at the possibility that it could continue down.
If we look at this daily chart you can see more of the triangle continuation pattern that i am talking about. If we compare this potential run-up to April, you can see that we have broken the initial trendline just as we did in April.
Just before we had the run-up we got another push-down. Are we getting that right now before the big run up? Or do we need to come to that other 2nd major trendline before hitting the final one near 350? I highlighted these questions in the red circles.
Make sure you have your plan in place. For either scenario. I have 1 more ladder entry down above 200, around 230. If you are into ETH heavy, you could parse some of your loses and look to buy lower if it breaks down.
Happy Trading, -Sherem
P.S. Make sure you have a plan right now, stick to it. Pick your points and don't use leverage!
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Previous analysis for reference.
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Please like the idea to show your support, thank you!
If we zoom in we can see the consolidation wedge is basically broken. We should hit 320 pretty easily now and once that breaks we will be moving much higher.
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If you have been reading my posts you know my final ladder got filled down here at 225. Going into hodl mode now. Crazy moves on these things.
To rather state the obvious ETH will go up if (and only if) BTC goes up. Since BTC is looking far more like it wants to go back down to $6000 (and hopefully hit a nice bottom around $5000), I would consider the chance of ETH going up by 150% by the end of September to be very slim!
Sherem
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@BCryptological, Could, but I think BTC will bounce up from this 6.7k area and move up to 7.5k, then 8k and slowly climb to 10k. BTC still has a lot of shorts to squeeze to drive it higher. We're at critical junctures for both BTC and ETH right now.
nmurray
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@Sherem, many shorts have closed in the past 24 hours i think a short squeeze is looking less likely
Sherem
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@nmurray, But look what happened in April. Shorts got squeezed (which we have essentially done already) then we started moving up. The difference this time is longs are actually lower than April by 10k, giving a lot of room for speculative longs to enter.
But notice the difference when price moves up. Longs actually DIDN'T increase, shorts just steadily went down. I still think we are just starting a move up. This time it will be slower. The market always climbs the wall of worry.
FadiHanafieh
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great job, can you take look for ethbtc
Sherem
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@FadiHanafieh, I put up an analysis a couple weeks ago and it still is good, it's just a matter of time before we get a rebound in ETH/BTC