$ETH - Bears seem to be taking over...

BITMEX:ETHUSD   ETHUSD Perpetual Futures Contract
Just an hour after my detailed ETH analysis it throws me off with a bullish candle! Early days though and low tf, not enough to change my mind yet.

Here's what I posted on telegram earlier...

#ETH #UPDATE - I decided to look again at the bigger picture.

We are just holding the break in daily market structure from last year. Only just.

And we have retraced this year's move to the 70.7% fib.

Now I feel we are in a weak spot. Per the above we should have expected a decent size bounce which we got initially. But that has been followed by a nearly full retracement, a further correction, and now what is shaping up to be another full retracement.

On the shorter tf, we are close to a confluence of two 61.8% fibs and this aligns exactly with a missed retest level from the last wave. We broke trend resistance but came straight back inside rapidly. Indicators aren't really telling me much, mostly neutral with some minor bullish divergence on a few on the daily.

But my main issue is the weakness of the candles at this point. Low volume , no decent reversal pattern as yet, BTC looking also very weak. The longer term trendline is very close now too.

A break here to me is looking increasingly likely with the start of the next wave down being $148 as a target (failing being caught by the trendline at around $169).

PS - it never ceases to amaze me how accurate these arrows can be! I literally scroll back and look for untested levels on the 1min chart with certain rules applied. This recent one was spot on in price! The one at $176.50 as well from ages ago - not spot on but not far off.

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