Price is about to retest the 625 resistance (.382 of recent swing). This level has previously proven to attract selling activity. The question is do these bears return? The higher low established at 575 indicates that price is more likely to push higher, but this is where the risk of retrace comes into play.
The 641 reversal zone boundary is relative to the 628 high and is the area to watch for formations IF a fake out is in order for these markets.
Keep in mind, this is not a prediction, it is a scenario to be prepared for. If the newly established stays intact, this market may be on its way to a new high and a decisive close above the 628 level. This will change the short term outlook from to .
At S.C., we are not taking any new swing trade longs because price is too close to resistance levels. We would rather miss the low probability trade, even if it works out this time. We know that in the long run, the same trade would produce inconsistent results and that is not in line with our goal.
Our plan is to wait for better prices which means a retest of 575 would have to happen. If price continues higher, then we will be evaluating for the next swing trade long opportunity.
So, what other scenario are you envisioning?
You also managed to make a prediction without actually saying whether it was going to be up or down :)