ABC as easy as 123... Descending Triangle - ETH Short Potential

I have been following ETH price movements for months, now, however, I am more actively trading and while I have only been active and published on trading view for nearly two weeks, I am very confident in this trade. Part of that confidence is from TA, some is from experience in the industry and the other bits are pure speculation and hopefully a little luck. One thing I've learned is that no matter how good your analysis is the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. In a few trades over the past couple weeks I have gotten washed going in early, this made me determined to be more patient and wait for the trend to become very clear before trying to get in on top of it.

I've noticed that the more patient I am with entries the more success I've had in trades. More recently I was able to enter this trade at point B:

This was a quick in and out trade for me between 223.50/ETH to 217.50/ETH, while only 2.68% at 25x leverage I netted a decent 66%+ gain on a 20 minute trade.

Now we are in new territory. My earlier calls were mostly too early but I hit the Bear Flag Breakout pretty spot on, after my exit I haven't traded ETH until today's breakout. Unfortunately my most recent post, the bearish descending triangle;

was too early. However, I didn't enter until today when all my alerts were triggered.

Unfortunately I missed my alerts and the bulk of this trade, for now, I really think there is more room for ETH to decline. My original descending triangle analysis was based off of the 8hr chart and missed the timeline, again no trade was entered as I was waiting for a moment like today.

My chart is now based off of a 1 day view, and the descending triangle pattern seems to have proven itself. As you can see at points "A" and "B" on both the descending triangle and the MACD, when ETH price crossed the lower bound of the pattern it also presented a solid MACD cross. From each of these points ETH declined for several days. Looking at our current position "C" we have broken the triangle bound and we are encroaching upon another MACD cross. It is for this reason I believe we could see a couple days worth of downward pressure if ETH does not recover promptly. That means that even though I, and maybe you, missed the bulk of this first drop, there is more to come.

I am actively trading this right now. I have already opened and closed one position in the past hour or two. I entered a derivative position at 203.00 and exited at 197.50, the derivative is trading at somewhat of a large discount to ETH. This trade was in and out in under 10 minutes, I already missed most of the action, and while it was only a 2.71% gain, at 25x leverage I netted a decent 67%+ gain, almost identical to my other trade mentioned earlier.

Currently ETH is near 206.00, and I have a position opened again at 201.00 and for reference the derivatives are trading near 201.80+

I think this will be a crucial moment for the longer term direction of ETH. Bulls need some real upward momentum here, otherwise I think bears will have a field day.

Happy trading mates!

Comment:

Just a little bear flag, may be interesting to see if ETH price crossing the lower bound of the yellow will trigger more downwards momentum.

The orange lines are the large descending triangle formed over the past month and volatility seems to be back now.

I'm leaving my trade open with alerts.

Trade closed manually:

I was happy to be able to trade this pattern again after the bear flag I was anticipating broke out.

Yesterday I was able to get entries at $197.50/ETH (derivatives again) and closed along the way down all the way to $187/ETH. This was also a very quick trade, I only had a position open for less than 30 minutes. I netted 5.32% on this movement, my past trades were at 25 x leverage, this one was only at 15 x which means I only got 79.7% on the trade.

I am seeing another bear-flag presenting itself, a confirmation here could lead to a continuation of the downtrend established by the confirmation of the (Point "C") descending triangle charted.

See my updated analysis here;