I wanted to start a new thread because we have a lot going on with ETH right now in these charts.
This post is going to look at potential scenarios of when ETH is going to get more of a SUBSTANTIAL run up. Or when the BOTTOM of ETH could appear, maybe soon?
Let's first start with some technicals. Weekly MACD is still moving down heavily and weekly RSI is still not in oversold territory. The Daily MACD is still drifting down and RSI still has not reached oversold territory yet. the concern here is that because we are in a down trend that we will continue past this bottom in a simple ABCD pattern. Until we break this orange trendline, this is a possible scenario. I will address 3 key questions here with various charts.
Q: Sherem, What are you looking for to see if this is the bottom?
A. For this to be a bottom we need to invalidate that large ORANGE trendline that I have on my chart here. Let's look back in April when we had that large rally where a couple things occurred:
1. That down trendline was invalidated by a long sideways movement which had a move up and then found support again.
2. RSI went into oversold territory and we are not there yet.
3. MACD had a nice cross and we rallied hard.
Right now we are not there yet. If we break that orange trendline, I want to see a test of $500 and a pullback for an entry point for a move to the upside.
This post is going to look at potential scenarios of when ETH is going to get more of a SUBSTANTIAL run up. Or when the BOTTOM of ETH could appear, maybe soon?
Let's first start with some technicals. Weekly MACD is still moving down heavily and weekly RSI is still not in oversold territory. The Daily MACD is still drifting down and RSI still has not reached oversold territory yet. the concern here is that because we are in a down trend that we will continue past this bottom in a simple ABCD pattern. Until we break this orange trendline, this is a possible scenario. I will address 3 key questions here with various charts.
Q: Sherem, What are you looking for to see if this is the bottom?
A. For this to be a bottom we need to invalidate that large ORANGE trendline that I have on my chart here. Let's look back in April when we had that large rally where a couple things occurred:
1. That down trendline was invalidated by a long sideways movement which had a move up and then found support again.
2. RSI went into oversold territory and we are not there yet.
3. MACD had a nice cross and we rallied hard.
Right now we are not there yet. If we break that orange trendline, I want to see a test of $500 and a pullback for an entry point for a move to the upside.
Comment:
Q: Sherem, why do you think it could go down even lower? Shouldn't this be the bottom?
A. The best comparison I have is when ETH hit it's double bottom back in March at 600. A lot of people thought this was the low, but it blew through it and went down to 400. We can look to ETH/BTC for the answer to this. ETH/BTC had just broken the upwards trendline and started to move down. We were already in a strong downtrend and ETH/BTC further ratified the move down. What happened next on ETH/BTC is that we then created a "higher low" and broke this trendline. If this continues on pace, it's going to be a slower move to the downside. We have a couple places we could base out and while I think .04 will be more likely, we will have to see how it plays out.
A. The best comparison I have is when ETH hit it's double bottom back in March at 600. A lot of people thought this was the low, but it blew through it and went down to 400. We can look to ETH/BTC for the answer to this. ETH/BTC had just broken the upwards trendline and started to move down. We were already in a strong downtrend and ETH/BTC further ratified the move down. What happened next on ETH/BTC is that we then created a "higher low" and broke this trendline. If this continues on pace, it's going to be a slower move to the downside. We have a couple places we could base out and while I think .04 will be more likely, we will have to see how it plays out.
Comment:
I hope that helps everyone with my overarching perspective. Let me know if it helps with that like button.
Cheers
Cheers
Comment:
We're touching this orange trendline, we'll go long after some consolidation or if we get a minor pull back to 450 and that area holds.
Trade active:
it's broken the trendline on the 4 hour, not quite the daily yet, but this is really starting to form up and look like it's going to move higher. We'll target this first resistance zone and look for patterns that invalidate this move.
Comment:
Looks to be following my retrace arrows pretty closely. Sideways movement invalidates the orange trendline further. I imagine a push up is just a matter of time at this point as long as these recent lows hold.
Comment:
A great move up right now! Once we crack this 485 area we should move a lot higher!
Comment:
Watch this $450 area. We have either broken this down trendline or we are sitting on this 455 support and alternate trendline. It will be interesting to see what we do here.
Comment:
Stop hit, it's invalidated all the upward trend lines at this point. Unfortunate.
Comment:
Update:
A. This chart is zoomed in with that orange trend line. It's critical that we break it and create a "higher high" which still hasn't happened yet, even with this large push. We have created a series of lower lows in the last month. This usually indicates that we continue to get a move lower. For me to feel comfortable entering a trade I want to see some sort of push higher or pattern that indicates we will move higher.
We did have some ladders down here that have been adjusted periodically. If you got filled you should be in a good position and be able to book some profits or put a stop loss on your position to protect your profits.