The last 9 months for the crpyto market has been a brutal place for the bulls and long term hodlers. Ethereum has seen nearly a 89% drop from the top to the recent bottom of $170. Looking at price action alone, many would say the Ethereum bear run is far from over. However, when taking volume into account, others could say the bottom may be near.
- The Analysis - Nearly 8 months went by with crypto spot volume plummeting across the board. However this last month *Ethereum, along with many other assets have seen a 200-250% increase in volume. The *Ethereum volume on the Bitfinex exchange nearly hit an all time high last week. Looking back the to 2017, these volume levels have only been hit 2 other times. Both of which were local bottoms.
The VPSI indicator, or Dual Volume Price Strength Index, measures the strength index of both the bulls and bears. This indicator is showing complete seller exhaustion, with the bulls currently attempting to take over. Data like this again only occurred 2 additional times back in 2017.
Taking this volume and price data into account. I believe there is a strong chance that at least a local bottom could be forming here.
If this is indeed a bottom forming, and Ethereum continues to break upwards, I would expect the following targets very possible:
280
326
404
Also take note: The last major leg down, *Ethereum plummeted nearly 75% before a 130% rally up. Since this local high, *Ethereum has seen nearly an 80% drop without any significant movement up. If this is indeed a local bottom, it would support a possible rally to the $400 level
I hope you all found this volume analysis interesting and maybe even a little helpful!
I wish you all the best of luck!
DISCLAIMER: Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
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Possible support levels while maintaining the bullish structure
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Target 1 of the Bullish Bat hit lets see if this continues. additional bullish targets are shown below
I've pretty much come to the same conclusion as you. The one thing that I keep coming back to is that we're dealing with potentially two totally different market states. Arguably, 2017 was an accumulatory moment in a bull market. This has been full blown bear.
There is a lot of historical price action that took place in this sub $200's back in July 2017. We saw climatic selling volume into a nearly identical price point ($167.32), followed by an AR/failed rally into a low volume creek--ultimately to a spring in the $130's before real buying volume stepped in. That price target would correlate to a current ETHBTC ratio with a BTC floor in the mid 4k's I'm really expecting something similar. If $130's fails, there is VERY little price support below. I'll try to catch a knife in the 130s, but am prepared to cut losses and see double digits.
Kgear117
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@jogrgo, I kid you not, I've been following this exact fractal for a week or so now with curiosity. I'm glad someone else also has seen it, and how it is playing out on a bigger time frame.
Great Analysis, but ETH will follow BTC. BTC soon will be in capitulation phase and can go towards 5200 range. This will bring ETH to $60 to $80 range.
tenzor7
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@patelcrypto, everyone and their grandmother thinks it will go below 6000. I say it wont.
tearliner
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@tenzor7, same lol every retards think it will go below 6000 I say alts already capitulated early because btc has no plan for capitulation
JevonJeweather
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i like your chart, I guess we just need that sep 30th approval,after that to the moon
mxpwladimir
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@JevonJeweather, There's something better than some silly ETF. Why would BTC moon because of ETF, I can't understand, it has almost nothing to do with immidiate price action, just an excuse for pump&dump.
Rather google BAKKT, mass adoption is the key for next bullrun ;)
JevonJeweather
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@mxpwladimir, i know, but people trade on emotion, this etf approval would boost us
vanphat123456
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thank you for the update. We should wait for the recovery of BTC when investing in ETH. All are in rotation. And it may be a continued decline when the BTC reaches 6000
There is a lot of historical price action that took place in this sub $200's back in July 2017. We saw climatic selling volume into a nearly identical price point ($167.32), followed by an AR/failed rally into a low volume creek--ultimately to a spring in the $130's before real buying volume stepped in. That price target would correlate to a current ETHBTC ratio with a BTC floor in the mid 4k's I'm really expecting something similar. If $130's fails, there is VERY little price support below. I'll try to catch a knife in the 130s, but am prepared to cut losses and see double digits.