WooHoo! ETH at 1450 point! But wait... What did just happened? Why the stale market turned bullish all of the sudden? 🤔 Every daily trader understands that volatility is key to profit and they are celebrating it today! Maybe that is why no one is asking WHY did this happen? Why ETH did not go to 1200 as it was forecasted? Why Monday demand and volumes were so low? Why this obvious down-trend did not trigger a selloff? Why RSI was so high? So many questions to answer.
Let's take a look at the data - it has been a record low demand, trade volumes and volatility for 3 continues days. Most traders took their weekend off as 2% volatility did not offer much room for profit. That is perfectly understandable. Monday surprisingly was the same - almost no one was trading, record low demand, record low trade volumes and 1,5% volatility. It would be normal to assume that the market is just overpriced and a sell-off is just around the corner, but that did not happen. 3:45 GMT all of the sudden market turned greed. Not normal green, just marginal green and continued that way almost without a fault for 17 hours straight!
So what really happened? For the first few hours of price rising, there was no whale activity, no sharp rises. No demand, low volumes. However relative market data was not bad. RSI was promising and market data suggest that BOTS were slowly buying. Since there were no other participants, SRI sky-rocketed and more BOTS started to buy. Just by 10pm GMT volumes started to raise as small-time traders joined the game and FOMO began.
Here you go, empty market with no interest or demand was able to fix itself. Fascinating. 🎉
Now back to business - today's technical data: Position is long, forecasted highs are at 1455 and maybe even heading towards 1500! Foreseeable lows may be 1420 and 1400, with murky waters in regards of new support line yet to be discovered. Have fun trading!
Hi nice thinking! Why don't we all start a group for like minded crypto traders where we can all help each other!
DataMoney
â‹…
@northlondonheatingandplumbing, thanks for your comment!
We already have it, here at TradingView community. However, I see where you are going. A few other people asked if I am planning to start my own channel and Patreon. Please let me know if that is something you all would be interested in. If I can get 50 people supporting this idea, I might put in the necessary hours to make it happen.
roryh86
â‹…
As I said to you last week and Saturday, it is not a good idea to short when the trend is showing a bullish pattern (ascending triangle). 15min chart is too small to observe the ascending triangle. On a 4H chart it was very clear that there was a 1430 ceiling price, and ETH was forming higher lows every time it bounced off this ceiling. This resulted in the bullish ascending triangle pattern, and because it was forming towards a previous ATH zone, there was a high chance ETH will break out at the end of the triangle. RSI and other lagging indicators are not useful in this scenario where price is attempting to make new ATH. Price action and trendlines are your best friend. Also, market psychology was leaning towards ETH imitating BTC and breaking out from its 2018 high.
roryh86
â‹…
@roryh86 also we had the formation of a tweezer bottom candlestick pattern on the daily chart from Jan 31 and Feb 1 daily candlesticks.
DataMoney
â‹…
@roryh86, thanks for your comment, this is very interesting!
I am still trying to shape my opinion about leading indicators, therefore it would be great if you could drop me a few lines of your best understanding of leading indicators, how you use them and read them. If we, as a community, could find a way to improve my model to 15% daily yield, that would be fantastic!
denn1smeister
â‹…
Nice predictions!
DataMoney
â‹…
@denn1smeister, thanks, much appreciated!
If you find this insightful, please share it with your friends and community. The more people read this, the more feedback I get and it helps to improve the model.
samky39
â‹…
Nice one, ETH restored my faith in this.. keeping my long open for now hoping for it to enter price discovery territories.
DataMoney
â‹…
@samky39, nice! Keep us posted on the profit you make.
It would be great if you would share this with your friends!