The structures that prompted us at S.C. to call for a swing trade long are still in place. The failed low off of the 458 reversal zone boundary, the break of the high of the and the 544 to 464 location.
The tricky part has been the recent formation, but if the 521 high is taken out, this market can push back up to the 625 resistance.
At S.C., the swing trade that we are in is betting on the broad higher low formation relative to the 374 low. Higher lows often lead to higher highs. Even though at this magnitude, it will not happen in a straight line. Once the formation is in play, the short term probabilities will shift decisively to the side.
A close above the at the 544 area will be the first sign. And a decisive close above 625 will be the second. When will this market behave this way? I have no idea. All I know is that at current levels, the probability of a larger magnitude retrace is greater.
Keep in mind, our current swing trade has a target lower than these levels. We will keep targets conservative until after the market proves that a broader recovery is in play. At that point, any new trades will feature targets that are more appropriate for that type of environment.
In summary, all eyes are on BTC . The reason why I even write about this market and its levels is just to quantify the reward/risk of our specific swing trade.
The fact that an has formed and there is price hesitation are signs. As long as price does not break below 450, chances are better that this market retests the 544 .
I gauge probabilities relative to the price action presented on a chart. I do not "predict" anything, instead I just listen and adjust as the market instructs me to. Standard oscillators are not the most effective tool to discover this perspective. Information based on raw price action is.