ETHUSD: Slow But Still Poised To Test 544 Resistance Area.

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
ETHUSD update: Lack of follow through makes this coin a tough one to hold for a swing trade long, but it is still in a good position to rally. While short term structure remains bearish , do not lose sight of the broad higher low formation that appears to be in progress.

The structures that prompted us at S.C. to call for a swing trade long are still in place. The failed low off of the 458 reversal zone boundary, the break of the high of the bullish pin bar and the 544 to 464 support zone location.

The tricky part has been the recent bearish inside bar formation, but if the 521 high is taken out, this market can push back up to the 625 resistance.

At S.C., the swing trade that we are in is betting on the broad higher low formation relative to the 374 low. Higher lows often lead to higher highs. Even though at this magnitude, it will not happen in a straight line. Once the formation is in play, the short term probabilities will shift decisively to the bullish side.

A close above the bearish trend line at the 544 area will be the first sign. And a decisive close above 625 will be the second. When will this market behave this way? I have no idea. All I know is that at current levels, the probability of a larger magnitude retrace is greater.

Keep in mind, our current swing trade has a target lower than these levels. We will keep targets conservative until after the market proves that a broader recovery is in play. At that point, any new trades will feature targets that are more appropriate for that type of environment.

In summary, all eyes are on BTC . The reason why I even write about this market and its levels is just to quantify the reward/risk of our specific swing trade.

The fact that an inside bar has formed and there is price hesitation are bullish signs. As long as price does not break below 450, chances are better that this market retests the 544 bearish trend line .

I gauge probabilities relative to the price action presented on a chart. I do not "predict" anything, instead I just listen and adjust as the market instructs me to. Standard oscillators are not the most effective tool to discover this perspective. Information based on raw price action is.
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