ETHUSD: Swing Trade Long And Facing The Bearish Trendline.

ETHUSD update: A swing trade idea was triggered at the break of 543.50 which was published on S.C. earlier today. There is also a follow up article that explains the reasoning behind the trade.

As you can see, the trade is in the green for now. This retrace should not come as a suprise though. We have been writing about the support zones and risk of short squeeze for at least a week. When price reaches a predetermined level like the 544 to 464 support (.618 of recent bullish structure), it helps us to lean more toward expecting a reversal. Even when there is no sign of one which has been the case for the previous few days. It begins with probability and then is followed by pattern recognition.

As far as where this market can go, the next resistance is 625 (.382 of recent bearish structure). There is no guarantee that price will go there, but in terms of proportion, this level is within reason. On S.C., I wrote about a specific target and why we chose that level.

Keep in mind, there is a bearish trend line that is still in play. This is why we choose to lean more toward the conservative side when determining where to begin exiting the position. Can price retest the high 600's? Anything can happen, but we focus on probability, not profit.

If the market chooses to continue to run, there will be plenty of opportunity to lighten up on the position and let some ride.

In summary, this is a swing trade. It differs greatly from a position trade because of it's shorter term nature and specifically defined risk. We have also been building inventory during the general pessimism across a portfolio of coins, not just this one. When markets are ugly, that is the time to accumulate. When they look the greatest, that is the time to unload. In order to operate in line with this concept, you must separate yourself from your own natural impulses.

Natural impulses like buying a market at the high, or being bearish at the low is further amplified by all of the hype, drama and social noise. Price is the best piece of information we can get, it is just a matter of learning how to listen to it.