Keep in mind, BTC is holding up so far. At S.C., we have been monitoring it carefully and have identified a new swing trade long possibility in another alt as a result. We aim to capitalize on the short squeeze if the market presents the opportunity.
Andrew published an insightful article recently that presented a comparison of the alts that are on our inventory radar. ETH was clearly an under performer relative to its peers and this affects our decision making over the short term.
IF BTC retests 6K or lower, this market is poised to get hammered hard. Current structure points to further weakness which could compromise the 300 psychological support.
The 300 level carries a lot of weight for a number of technical reasons. One reason is it's the lower boundary of the largest magnitude .618 (not on chart for simplicity). This equates to the 4980 level on BTC . If price decisively closes below this level, 250 becomes a distinct possibility.
The relevance of the 250 area dates back to 2017 when a broad consolidation developed around there. This would be the next area to anticipate stability if 300 is cleared.
In summary, when positioning for a bounce, the markets to be in are the ones that got beat up the least. ETH certainly does not fit that criteria. Since we do not short, there is nothing to do but avoid until strength returns.
We remain long term on BTC and plan to keep ETH on the radar. We still believe in the merit behind this coin but when the technicals say avoid, we have no problem putting our opinions aside. We will simply hold our inventory and wait for a more favorable environment.
If BTC is going to recover, we want to be in the coins that have the greatest potential. We always talk about how opportunity lurks around the ugliest prices, but there does come a point where your resources are better utilized in markets that are much less ugly.
When this market stops under performing, we will have no problem continuing our operations. We respect the market and will let it tell us when the time is right.