Ethereum Heading into a New Bear Trend till end of 2020

Hi traders, I hope everyone is safe and healthy in these tough time. Here is the outlook for Ethereum for the next few months. Hit follow and like to show your support:

:arrow_forward: :chart_with_upwards_trend: Next level to consider rebuying some back if bullish is at $310-290 and $285-275 bottom of that broadening wedge where the bulls must try reversing it back up above $400 immediately to preserve the rounding bottom and bull trend :chart_with_upwards_trend: .

:chart_with_downwards_trend: Note that if we break that $285-275 support, then we may go in an extended bear market AGAIN unfortunately until end of 2020 after which a new bull market would start Q1 2021 which is a substantial delay again due to the US elections and US economical/pandemic mismanagement/incompetence of Trump's presidency.

If the bear trend confirms, then I do think we find a bottom on ETHUSD and BTCUSD sometime September or October before the US elections and I am currently looking at $220-210 for a rebuy/relong longterm for that bottom after which we'd see ETHUSD recover back up mid October to November 2020 back above $275-285 similar to July-October 2017 action...

:arrow_forward: Overall portfolio management wise, it is best to flip 50% to fiat and 50% ETH longterm and just watch. If we regain $400s+ then we can consider reinvesting the rest. If those 2 years of bear market in Crypto taught us something new, it is effective and proper risk, portfolio and trade management and most importantly banking profit/cash and withdrawing that profit to the bank account and enjoy it. Do not take any long-term outlook for granted and always take profit, else we'd suffer continuous losses over the years at the mercy of the high frequency algos and CME institutional entities.

Stay safe!

Trade active:

The bull fractal we watched for months now is close to failing see blue fractal. Watching closely the action near the bottom of the broadening wedge around $310-290 and 285-275.

Comment:

Since we are still in a bull market (blue fractal as reference) as long as $285-275 bottom of the broadening wedge holds. You can look to buy at the below levels in the next few weeks.

Buy/Long:
$310-290 - HIT
$285-275

Sell/Resistance:
$500-540

The expectation on this scenario is that the stock market does not crash in September/October and it instead it keeps rallying towards new highs.

Comment:

If you bought ETHUSD close or above $320-310 as suggested, I suggest cutting the position by 25 to 50% and leave the rest in. In my opinion, if we were bullish following the blue fractal, we would have been closer to $390-400s timing wise by now but we are not. Instead we are meeting strong resistance already at $380s and got rejected hard down to $360.

If the bulls close a daily above $402 then you can rebuy in safely back.

Short-term I can see a pull back to retest $320-300. If we are bearish we would make a lower low at $290-280 even.

Similar to Bitcoin's bear scenario we have discussed in our Discord community, we may be looking at a similar crash setup in the incoming weeks if the stock market crash again similar to February 2020. That said this crash may take time to setup (few weeks). Afterall, we similarly have a inverted cup and handle and rising wedge bear reversal painting mid-term. The fractal of 2020 is shown in purple. The textbook targets are still the same as my earlier green path with buy/long targets around $250-240 and $220-200.

Comment:

Looking bull

Comment:

Meanwhile ETHBTC is still bearish folks. Expecting 0.0300-0.0295.
So I will remain with the current position we have in ETHUSD and just keep watching. If we close a daily above $402 then we confirm the bull case. Below $350 we flip bearish.

Trade closed: stop reached:

Too many people are expecting a crash on the stock market. I am starting to think that it will not happen not until after the US elections in November. I am semi flat/neutral on ETHUSD atm expecting some sideways but leaning still bullish mid-term and long-term. My suggestion is to keep holding your long-term cold storage and any short-term position from $320s and lower for now. Will publish insight again when a setup becomes clear.

Trade active:

I guess I should have been more patient and waited for the data incoming from Europe as a second wave is hitting hard over there.

This scenario is potentially back on track on ETHUSD with expectation of $250-240 as the final bottom of this inverted cup and handle bear reversal pattern.

Comment: