Comparing the ETHUSD bubble pop from this cycle, to the BTC pop from 2013-2015, we can see some interesting similarities.
I don't necessarily believe that this has been the bottom, it is only interesting to note the very similar behavior of those two different timeframes on two different coins. Market psychology is truly often very similar.
Now, what does this mean? This means, that taking this comparison, we would have seen the bottom for ETH at around 80 USD.
However, since I believe that BTC will dump more, towards 2000 USD, ETH will also go hand in hand with that dump and dump down to around 50 USD, thus probably changing this fractal a bit.
Nonetheless, it is still interesting to see. ETH would like this to be the bottom it seems, but BTC doesn't agree. And since BTC gives the commands, I deem this chart to be of more entertaining nature.
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Depending on how you draw the resistance, one could argue, if drawn pessimistically, that it lies at around 190 USD, where the MA200 also lies. There will be strong resistance at this point.
If ETH manages to push through that resistance on high volume, I will be more convinced that ETH already bottomed. Until then, I'll remain cautious as always:
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Well ETH didn't quite repeat the fractal with 100% accuracy, but it's certainly bullish and the low in december 2018 therefore probably has been the low.
doing closer studying of elliot waves with bitcoin...it's looking moreso that we are still working on C wave of 4 and thus, ethereum is too. eth looks quite similar to how btc did around 11/11/2014. if this plays out...we could see a run up to $190 before major rejection...then a final wave 5 down to $35-43 in april/may.
kenzboard
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@kenzboard, btw btc C wave of 4 in mid 11/2014 hit the descending bear channel before being rejected. your scribbled line looks pretty good - perhaps the date of the hard fork on 2/27/2019 will be the 'sell the news' day
SebastianofMoon
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@kenzboard, Could be, yes. And your target of 35-43 in april also sounds very close to what I was thinking, too. It would all align perfectly, also coinciding with the bottom in bitcoin.
kenzboard
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yep. i've been following the comparison ever since the run up to $420 for eth in 6/2017 and following btc (but one cycle behind it). ~$40 would be the lowest it would get if btc decides to drop to $1900, creating the bear market low. otherwise, if btc doesn't make a lower low and $3215 was the bear market low...then $80 for eth is its low and the wyckoff accumulation range $80-$165 has already been established. its when eth breaks above $165 convincingly (on high volume) spiking to $255 and bouncing back off $165 that we can call a renewed bull market.
SebastianofMoon
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@kenzboard, Exactly, well analyzed :) A break up to 255 and bounce back to 165, resistance thus becoming support, woould be indeed a confirmation that the bullmarket has started. I'll also continue to keep a close watch on this one.
LauriElias
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10 billion dollars is no bottom for CryptoKitties.