RogueDave

ETHUSD - Elliott Wave Counts - Wave IV Update

COINBASE:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
Has ETH reached reached a near term low? The 134 level is near a 78.6% Fibonacci level, a steep and deep decline from its 420 high. The a-b-c-d-e decline to what may mark A of an A-B-C corrective wave may be in place. Potential exists to climb up to a B counter correction level, before resuming a decline to mark its lows at point C of 4. Time will tell.

Internal factors affecting ETH's price include AltCoin (token) ICO's pricing in ETH, then selling their ETH to lock in fiat funds to do the actual development work. Said differently, fund in ETH, and then sell the ETH to lock in funding. Their motivation is much different than investor's motives. With a lot of token ICOs yet to come this summer and fall, it's a wild guess as to how the ETH price level will play out.

Then there are the affects and impacts of BTC's moves. The leader of the crypto space tends to drag most or all large cap AltCoins with it when it moves. More questions than answers.
Comment: Standby - Doing research on another feed for ETH, I have uncovered older data than that from the Coinbase feed. Data that goes back to the beginning of ETH. Hence my current count that supposed it was in Wave 4, having completed a top at Wave 3. Well it just isn't correct.

Based upon the Kraken data feed, research I have preformed at Etherscan, https://etherscan.io/, and now integrating the Elliott Wave, wave personality characteristics, It is much more readily apparent that the recent high above 400 has marked the conclusion of Wave 5, and the current correction scope and scale should cover the entire trading history. Among other changes, the Fibonacci retracement location of my current estimate of corrective wave A, will be revised up to a 61.8%, based upon the whole of the move. The data does include the hard fork splitting off ETC. https://blog.ethereum.org/2016/07/20/har...


Comment:
Comment: Here's my current count and forecast for ETH: (B) of B of (2)

Comments

FYI - http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/introduction-technical-analysis/18066-elliott-wave-principle-part-vi.html ref to throw - overs / throw - unders. My suspicion is that A(e) as identified in your chart is a throw under, common in wave 5 and it's opposite a throw - over. I agree that your overall assessment ie current price movement may be an ABC correction. If that is that case (throw under) then the wave count from the high of $400 and downward would be in a channel and would follow the 1,3,5 pattern.
Reply
RogueDave maximegalon55
@maximegalon55, Thanks for the link, it's always nice to have another resource to help people understand movements, patterns, etc. I've been counting Elliott Wave for about 10 years, and observing masters and others do it for longer. So throw overs/unders, especially on a 5th wave are expected, whether while channeling, or at the conclusion expanding or reverse triangles.
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maximegalon55 RogueDave
@RogueDave, Excellent! I've been meaning to ask that Question. ie Are throw-overs / unders common in triangles too? I was less sure of that. So then does the throw-under (in this case) technically fall within the trend-lines? Thanks. Always good to learn from more experienced chartists. And thank you for taking the time to respond.
Reply
RogueDave maximegalon55
@maximegalon55, Happy to reply. Triangles are a pattern I'm really picky about. Too many people just throw them onto charts without consideration. Can't explain the price behavior, and it sort of resembles a triangle? Draw a couple trend lines and call it a triangle. Not in my book. The 5th leg can truncate (throw under, not reach a boundary line) or throw over (exceed a boundary line), but not the others, with the very rare exception. Price movements within the triangle pattern also should be in 3's at a macro level, or fractals of three's, an a-b-c of an (a)-(b)-(c) of an A-B-C that will form the leg of a triangle, if you're looking at the finer details of the waves inside the triangle.


http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics3.htm

"Triangles (3-3-3-3-3; four types: ascending, descending, contracting, expanding)"

There is a section that discusses Horizontal Triangles just over halfway down the page.
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maximegalon55 RogueDave
@RogueDave, good point on the fractal nature! This link is good. Have you by chance read Frost and Prechter? If so, what is your opinion. I had picked it up a while ago, but found myself revisiting it recently. If you have any other suggestions on resources, would appreciate a link. Cheers.
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RogueDave maximegalon55
@maximegalon55, I never read the whole book. There are electronic versions around the internet today, this is the one I reference should I need to access it.

https://www.scribd.com/doc/7381626/The-Elliott-Waves-Principles-Frost-A-J-Prechter-Robert-R

The core group of EWavers split and began advancing their own derivatives based on personal observations and interests, while Prechter stayed closest to Elliott's analysis (orthodoxy), others including Neely and the late Zoran Gayer went off to include other factors. Neely principally included a time dimension in his NEoWave (https://www.scribd.com/doc/131381250/Glenn-Neely-Mastering-Elliott-Waves), while Gayer focused more on the fractal nature, chaos theory, and bifurcation points (http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/zoran-bifurcation-theory.html).
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maximegalon55 RogueDave
@RogueDave, very interesting! Thank you for sharing. Appreciate it, greatly :)
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Dave what are you targeting A to be at? Also your other chart has BTC moving up nicely, do you think these two will start going in opposite directions?
Reply
RogueDave icculus
@icculus, ETH & BTC are maintaining their high degree of correlation, though ETH is lagging. Based on the new Kraken data, and checking my less accurate history, I haven't posted a new forecast, officially, but if BTC trades as I anticipate it, then over the same time frame, this is how I see ETH trading. I am still calibrating, so this is not official, yet.

+1 Reply
veilkrand RogueDave
@RogueDave, what's you buy target? under 200?
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