A look into Ethereum's 200 days

BINANCE:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE - Just an education tool for my trade setups ;D

This is an ETHUSD (Binance) Daily chart that will be dissected and summarised for what I think is the likely path of least resistance in the next 7-21 days.

Fib Speed Resistance Fan: 0.886 now Support after 1xFakeout and 1xRejection

Fib 0.618 Levels: Broke and promptly bouncing out of 0.618 Fib resistance: Bulls winning. Heading towards 0.786 Fib levels ($4005).

Area of Confluence: Bears previously lurking around $3348 unable to drive price down. Heading towards next AoC, where '$3811' Bears reside.

20 Days EMA (red line): Bouncing off strongly on the 20 Day EMA .

MACD: MACD line is bouncing off signal line, after almost threatening to go under: Bullish .

RSI: Bouncing of 0.5 levels. Ample distance to climb into Overbought territory, but signs of lower Highs may indicate structural weakness in buying pressure.

VOLUME: This isn't a Wyckoff study, but the macro view here is relatively weak. Short term view is showing strength, as smaller amount of buyers need overcome sellers: sign that retail (low volume ) is gobbling supply, while Composite Operator (CO) dumps at designated peaks to test retail's appetite.


$ETH is showing stubborn resistance to go down and it looks like the Bulls are winning in the short term. However, there are strong suspicions that it looks like this rally will be cut short at the Bears' whim.

When an asset's price is essentially 'supply vs demand', the last point that looked at Volume analysis points towards a possible rigged setup that the CO is playing. Intermittent selloffs by CO has failed to deter the Bulls nor whet the Bears' appetite, allowing price to continue rallying, despite the macro economic outlook not looking too sexy in the near term.
Comment: Critical major price action will be the range between $3800 and $4000.

Feels like reaching this range is possible, but to break through looks like a huge test for ETH Bulls.
Comment: $ETH has pumped 25% since we last visited its price action.

A good friend asked me if $ETH will break ATH and go into price discovery -- and although I reiterated that anything can happen in crypto, including a major selloff, I told him that the ethereum network still has so much more value to give to its network participants.

And that value has not yet been priced in -- could be lower of course -- but ETH 2.0's arrival in 2022 will shake the crypto scene up.

Until then, I'm willing to err on the ceiling potential of ETH's rally.